Two key messages emerge clearly from the European Commission’s Annual Enlargement Report, published on November 4:
The European Union (EU) is serious about accepting new members before the end of its current five-year mandate in 2029, and it has identified its most likely candidates — Albania, Montenegro, Moldova, and Ukraine.
This is the first enlargement report issued by the new European Commission since taking office last year. As usual, it assesses the progress — or lack thereof — made by 10 aspiring members: Kosovo, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine.
However, this year’s report carries a clear geopolitical tone.
A Renewed Push for Enlargement
According to EU officials in Brussels, enlargement has returned to the top of the European agenda, particularly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated:
“Enlargement is not something that would be nice to have — it’s something that must happen if we want to remain a strong global actor.”
The last country to join the EU was Croatia in 2013, but the bloc has since shrunk for the first time in history, following the United Kingdom’s exit in 2020.
The report notes that this is the first Commission mandate since 2010-2014 in which enlargement is a realistic opportunity, with the process moving faster than at any time in the past 15 years.
Montenegro: The Front-Runner
Montenegro is currently viewed as the most likely next EU member.
Podgorica has declared its goal of completing accession negotiations by the end of 2026, and the Commission confirms that the country is “on track to achieve this ambitious objective.”
Although the final decision rests with the 27 current EU member states, which must unanimously approve the opening and closing of 33 negotiation chapters, Montenegro has already opened all 33 chapters and closed seven, most of them within the last 12 months — a sign of new momentum.
Officials expect five more chapters could be closed by December, though EU diplomats caution that such optimism may be premature.
Concerns remain over corruption, organized crime, and judicial independence, areas where substantial progress is still required.
If momentum continues, Montenegro could realistically join the EU by 2028.
Albania: Rapid Progress, but Serious Challenges
Albania follows closely behind.
The Albanian government hopes to complete accession talks by 2027, though the Commission considers this timeline ambitious.
Over the past 12 months, Albania has made remarkable progress, opening 28 out of 33 negotiation chapters and preparing to begin the remaining five later this month.
However, closing chapters is far harder than opening them, and Brussels remains concerned about organized crime, corruption, and weak law enforcement.
The report explicitly recommends that Tirana intensify investigations against drug traffickers and dismantle criminal networks.
Despite these concerns, Albania’s tourism boom and its growing appeal to European investors are viewed positively in the context of its EU aspirations.
Moldova and Ukraine: Partners in Progress
The applications of Moldova and Ukraine have been treated as a pair since both applied in 2022, and the EU intends to maintain that approach.
Moldova is likely to advance faster in the short term, as Ukraine’s process remains blocked by Hungary until at least Budapest’s 2026 parliamentary elections.
Moldova hopes to join the EU by 2028, while Ukraine remains determined to achieve membership within this decade, despite the ongoing war.
Both have received strong marks from the Commission, though Kyiv was criticized for attempts to influence anti-corruption agencies NABU and SAP.
The EU-27 (excluding Hungary) have agreed to continue technical preparations with Chisinau and Kyiv, pending political approval from Budapest — which could shift if Hungary’s leadership changes next year.
The Political Obstacles Ahead
EU leaders such as European Council President António Costa have proposed revising unanimity rules for accession negotiations to prevent single-country vetoes — but member states remain divided.
Hungary, Bulgaria, and Croatia continue to use enlargement as leverage for their own bilateral disputes. Bulgaria is still blocking North Macedonia, while Croatia has raised new conditions for Serbia’s accession.
In parallel, the EU is considering new mechanisms that would allow it to suspend voting rights or block funding for new members that violate rule-of-law standards, an idea widely supported in Western Europe to prevent “another Hungary” scenario.
Managing the Next Wave of Enlargement
Experts believe the EU could more easily “absorb” Albania, Montenegro, and Moldova than Ukraine, given their smaller populations.
As Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos noted, “Montenegro’s population of 600,000 is comparable to the Belgian city of Antwerp. Albania and Moldova, each under three million, are roughly the size of Rome.”
Still, major budgetary and institutional reforms will be needed to integrate the next wave of members.
By 2028 or 2029, the European Union could expand to 30 members, marking its largest geopolitical transformation in decades.
