According to media reports, the United States is once again considering withdrawing its troops from Germany. However, if this happens, it will not occur overnight.
In addition, the U.S. continues to invest billions of dollars in its military bases in Germany, as reported by Deutsche Welle. Currently, there are about 37,000 U.S. soldiers stationed at various bases in Germany. Most of them are located at the Ramstein Air Base and its surroundings in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate. This represents the largest U.S. military community outside of the United States.
Furthermore, approximately 12,000 German civilians work for the U.S. military across Germany, most of them in the Rheinland-Pfalz region. With Donald Trump back in office as U.S. president, there is growing concern that he may reduce the number of U.S. troops in Germany.
During his first term, Trump had already threatened a partial withdrawal of U.S. troops from Germany, claiming that Germany was not contributing enough to NATO. “We will reduce the number of troops in Germany to 25,000,” Trump said at that time. However, President Joe Biden’s administration later canceled these plans.
Meanwhile, U.S. Vice President JD Vance took a tougher stance towards NATO allies and Germany during the Munich Security Conference, criticizing Germany’s supposed restrictions on freedom of speech and linking this to the American military presence in the country. “All of Germany’s defense is funded by American taxpayers.”
Additionally, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated in early February, during a visit to U.S. troops in Stuttgart, that the new U.S. administration was not planning a large-scale withdrawal from Europe at this time. However, he emphasized that the global deployment of U.S. forces would be reviewed.
These speculations were further fueled by The Telegraph, which recently reported on the alleged mass transfer of U.S. troops from Germany to Hungary. These claims have not been confirmed.
Security Implications and Nuclear Deterrence
Military expert Carlo Masala from the Bundeswehr University in Munich believes that the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Germany would send a “catastrophic signal in terms of security policy,” especially to countries like Russia, as it would suggest that the U.S. no longer fully guarantees conventional military support for all European allies.
However, Masala believes that a large-scale troop withdrawal is “unlikely,” at least not in the short term. “It’s possible,” Masala said, “that there could be a gradual withdrawal or redistribution of U.S. troops within Europe.”
He adds that under Trump, the U.S. no longer sees itself as the “primary guarantor of Europe’s security.” “We will not be able to prevent the Americans from withdrawing conventionally from Europe on a large scale,” he says.
It has been reported that American nuclear deterrence and the presence of conventional troops in Europe are considered crucial for the defense of NATO’s European allies. It is estimated that about 20 U.S. tactical nuclear warheads are stationed at the Büchel military base.
Germany, which does not have its own nuclear weapons, can use these in a crisis, but only with the approval of the U.S. president. Recent political events in the U.S. have raised doubts about whether Trump would approve such nuclear participation.
However, Masala does not see “any indication from the U.S. that the nuclear umbrella is in question for now.” Still, he believes Europe should prepare for such a scenario. “It makes sense,” Masala said, “to complement the U.S. nuclear shield with a French one, because it’s unlikely that the Americans would be willing to risk the destruction of New York, for example, to liberate Estonia in the future.”
Impact on German Workers and Ongoing U.S. Investments
Many Germans working for the U.S. military are currently frustrated, as confirmed by Susanne Schafer of the Verdi union in Kaiserslautern. Military expert Masala states, “The presence of U.S. troops is, of course, an economic factor in the areas where they are stationed.”
Two weeks ago, public sector workers in this city, including many who work for the U.S. military, went on a warning strike. They demanded higher wages and better working conditions, while many feared for their jobs. “The fear is certainly great. Every day we get new bad news. No one knows how things will develop,” said Jurgen Knaip, a firefighter employed by the U.S. military in Kaiserslautern, who fears he may lose his job.
Suspicious Emails
According to the union, the U.S. military’s civilian sector is currently under a hiring freeze, the option to work from home has been removed, and workers are increasingly receiving “suspicious emails.”
Ilona Lauer, a saleswoman at the Kaiserslautern Military Community Center, said angrily, “We have to list five things we did last week in an email. Absolute control!”
Another employee, who wished to remain anonymous, added that no one knows how to respond to these messages. “It’s scary that something is decided in Washington, and the next day an email like that arrives.”
In the German town of Baumholder, previous threats have been met with a rather calm response. Americans have been stationed there for 80 years, and about 8,000 U.S. soldiers and their families live in the area. Additionally, a large number of new apartments for about 2,000 additional soldiers are currently under construction at the U.S. military base.
The U.S. military plans to move a special unit from Stuttgart to Baumholder and invest about one billion dollars for this purpose.
The U.S. is currently making significant investments in other military bases in Rhineland-Palatinate. A new military hospital is being built in Weilerbach, near Ramstein, which will become the largest U.S. military clinic outside the U.S.
The local president, Ralf Hechler (CDU), therefore sees no indication that the Americans will withdraw. Even if they do, he says, it certainly won’t happen overnight.
