As Russia’s war against Ukraine continues and tensions escalate in the Middle East following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the international order built after the Cold War is facing one of its most serious challenges in decades.
This assessment comes from veteran German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger, who spoke in an interview with Kyiv Post.
According to Ischinger, the rules-based international order established after the Helsinki Final Act is now in deep crisis.
“The order we believed we had built since the Helsinki Final Act 50 years ago is now a field of ruins. Anyone claiming that a real international order with clear rules still exists is deceiving themselves,” he said.
Europe under geopolitical pressure
Ischinger warned that Europe is under growing geopolitical pressure, simultaneously dealing with the war in Ukraine and the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
He noted that the war in Ukraine has been ongoing since 2014, and the new confrontation involving Iran could also become prolonged.
“We can only hope it does not last as long as the war in Ukraine, but there are no guarantees,” he said.
He also suggested that changes in U.S. foreign policy may be affecting the relationship with Europe, arguing that Washington may no longer see the European Union as a collective partner as strongly as in the past.
Europe’s limited diplomatic role
Despite the global tensions, Ischinger stressed that diplomacy remains the main tool for managing international crises.
However, he warned that Europe is currently too passive in key diplomatic processes.
“At the moment we Europeans are sitting on the bench, at the edge of the field,” he said, noting that Europe has not played a central role in negotiations on Ukraine or in diplomatic efforts related to Gaza and Iran.
Risk that Ukraine loses attention
One of Ischinger’s biggest concerns is that the Middle East conflict could shift global attention and resources away from Ukraine.
If the confrontation with Iran intensifies, the United States might redirect military resources, including Patriot missile system, to the region.
“What happens if the U.S. concludes it has enough Patriot missiles to defend its interests in the Middle East but not for Ukraine?” he asked.
He warned that escalating tensions could also increase Russia’s energy revenues if global oil and gas prices rise.
Skepticism about military escalation with Iran
Ischinger said that while U.S. diplomacy has achieved some successes, including ceasefires in the Middle East, he remains skeptical about shifting from negotiations to military action against Iran.
He noted that there had been potential to revive a deal similar to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, from which the United States withdrew during the presidency of Donald Trump.
According to him, any military intervention aimed at regime change must include a clear plan for the country’s political future.
“You should never start a military intervention to change a regime if you do not have a clear plan for who will take power afterward,” he said.
Increasing pressure on Russia
Ischinger argued that Europe must strengthen its support for Ukraine while also playing a more active diplomatic role.
“Ukraine must remain Europe’s absolute priority. This is our continent, and Ukraine is a neighboring country that should one day become a member of the European Union,” he said.
He also stressed that any peace agreement without European involvement would not be sustainable.
According to him, international pressure on Russia should increase, including sanctions against countries that continue purchasing Russian energy.
Debate over international troops in Ukraine
Regarding proposals to deploy European troops to Ukraine, Ischinger expressed skepticism.
He said it would be extremely difficult without an agreement with Russia, noting that sending troops while the war continues would effectively mean entering the conflict.
However, he suggested that in the future non-NATO countries could participate in a mission to monitor a potential ceasefire line, mentioning countries such as India and Pakistan, which often contribute to peacekeeping operations.
“Ukraine first”
In conclusion, Ischinger said Europe must set a clear strategic priority.
“The phrase that should guide us is simple: Ukraine first. Ukraine must remain Europe’s absolute priority.”
According to him, only a more united and proactive Europe will be able to confront the new geopolitical challenges and maintain stability across the continent.
