The recent weeks have shown how quickly situations can change under the leadership of US President Donald Trump. What might this mean for the Western Balkans?
The three wars in Yugoslavia during the 1990s – in Croatia (1991-95), Bosnia and Herzegovina (1992-95), and Kosovo (1999) – ultimately ended under US leadership.
Since then, two military missions led by the EU and NATO have guaranteed peace in these former war zones.
However, for over two years, the situation in the Western Balkans has been steadily escalating.
The spiral of violence began in December 2022.
After representatives of the Serb minority in the Republic of Kosovo, under the direction of Serbia’s capital, Belgrade, withdrew from the Kosovar state institutions – the judiciary, police, and administration – Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić began assembling troops at the northern border of the neighboring country.
Former German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger accused Vučić of wanting to “play the role of a little Putin.” “It seems unimaginable to me how Vučić and the Serbian leadership are stirring up trouble here. I exclusively blame Belgrade for this escalation.”
Vučić, on the other hand, emphasized that the Serbian army would protect the Serb minority in the “southern province” of Serbia – as the leadership in Belgrade still calls Kosovo, which has not been under Serbian control since 1999.
In 2023, the situation escalated: In May, violent Serbs attacked and injured 90 NATO soldiers from the peacekeeping troops in Kosovo, KFOR.
The situation in Kosovo almost escalated further.
In September 2023, there were clashes between Serbian paramilitaries and the Kosovo police near the Serbian Orthodox monastery of Banjska in northern Kosovo.
Four people lost their lives, and dozens of Serbian paramilitaries, led by one of Vučić’s loyalists, managed to escape to Serbia.
They left behind a modern military arsenal worth millions from Serbia’s army reserves, which could have armed more than 100 fighters.
It appears that a larger military operation was planned here – perhaps with the aim of invading the four northern municipalities of Kosovo, where the Serb minority constitutes the majority of the population in a predominantly Albanian-populated area.
In October 2023, Vučić then ordered tanks to head towards Kosovo, which were only halted by diplomatic interventions from Washington and NATO.
In April 2024, American General Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, warned the US Congress about Belgrade’s intentions, saying the increase in Serbian troops after the Banjska attack was “the greatest threat of inter-state violence in 25 years.”
Threats Against Bosnia
Meanwhile, Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin threatened another neighboring country during a visit to Moscow, Russia: “Bosnia has never been closer to its end.”
Just recently, Milorad Dodik, the separatist president of the Serb-dominated entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republika Srpska (RS), was sentenced by the High Court of Bosnia to one year in prison and six years of a ban on holding office.
A few days ago, Dodik had threatened that a guilty verdict against him could deliver a “fatal blow” to Bosnia.
The president of RS was accused of disregarding the decisions of the High Representative, Christian Schmidt.
The High Representative is the highest institution of the international community in Bosnia, ensuring peace in the country since the end of the 1992-95 war.
After his conviction, Dodik went further and initiated the adoption of laws in the RS Parliament, which are now in force in the official security state register.
“Traitor Serbs”
After his conviction, Dodik initiated legislation in the RS Parliament to prevent Bosnian security and justice authorities from acting within the RS.
These laws went into effect on Friday (March 6, 2025) – but they are not being enforced by all authorities.
Employees in the central headquarters of Bosnia’s national police authority, the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA), continue their work, while their colleagues in regional offices in the RS capital, Banja Luka, have abandoned their positions.
President of RS, Dodik, had warned that everyone staying in Bosnian state institutions would be treated as “traitor Serbs.”
During a meeting with Serbian President Vučić in Belgrade on March 6, Dodik even claimed that “Bosniaks from Sarajevo want an armed conflict in Bosnia” to “take revenge on the Serbs.”
Schmidt: “The Red Line Has Been Crossed.”
The High Representative, Schmidt, responded on March 8.
In an interview with the German national radio Deutschlandfunk, he said that with “Dodik’s attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina,” the “red line” had been crossed. Schmidt called on the international community to focus more on the crisis in Bosnia.
For the first time, the High Representative explicitly criticized the Serbian government alongside Dodik, saying that “clear boundaries must be shown” to Belgrade.
To protect the Srebrenica genocide memorial from potential attacks, the EU peacekeeping force, EUFOR, has stationed units in this city in eastern Bosnia. In Srebrenica in August 1995, armed Bosnian Serbs killed over 8,000 Bosniak Muslims.
US Warning
The warning from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on March 8 via platform X to Dodik is a positive signal. He writes: “The actions of the president of RS, Milorad Dodik, undermine the institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina and threaten its security and stability… We call on partners in the region to join us in acting against this dangerous and destabilizing stance.”
Republican Congresswoman Ann Wagner from Missouri called Dodik on platform X a “brutal criminal” who must be stopped.
“I am in contact with the US Department of State and my colleagues in Congress to examine how we can counter Dodik’s government’s blatant efforts to undermine peace in the region,” Wagner said.
Vučić’s Increasing Autocracy
The NGO Human Rights Watch provides a grim view of the media landscape and press freedom in Serbia.
Election monitoring groups criticized the December 2023 elections as neither free nor fair.
Opposition parties were given little airtime on media, which is about 90 percent controlled by the government.
Vučić was given over 300 hours of television coverage that year. He was, and still is, omnipresent.
In the 2024 Press Freedom Index by Reporters Without Borders, Serbia fell from 91st place to 98th, behind Tanzania.
Amnesty International revealed that the Serbian government illegally uses spyware to spy on opposition members.
But despite his increasingly repressive policies, pressure on Vučić is mounting.
Protests in Serbia Grow Larger
For the third time, at the end of January, a car drove into a protest rally in Belgrade against endemic corruption in Serbia, which, according to protesters, is responsible, among other things, for the collapse of a supposedly newly inaugurated tent at the northern Serbian city of Novi Sad on November 1, 2024, where 15 people lost their lives.
In the car attack at the January protest, two doctors were seriously injured.
After the first such car incident in November 2024, Vučić mocked the victim on television: “Should we arrest the driver now? Someone who has broken no law, who was driving on his way? Are you alright?”
Pensioners Against Vučić
Meanwhile, student protests that began after the Novi Sad accident continue for nearly four and a half months.
They have become a massive movement representing all layers of Serbian society.
This was evident at the March 1, 2025, demonstration in the southern Serbian city of Niš, where thousands of students, who had marched there from all parts of Serbia, were enthusiastically received by tens of thousands of local residents and cyclists, who had also come specifically for the event.
The Niš demonstration was no longer the largest of the recent months – but the images must have been threatening to Vučić, as one of his main supporting groups, pensioners, was also represented in large numbers.
It remains to be seen how this movement, which lacks a central leadership and strictly opposes any form of political appropriation, will continue. Another massive protest is scheduled for March 15 in Belgrade.
What Will the US Do?
President Trump’s political plans for the Western Balkans remain unclear.
Economically, as a private individual, he is active through his companies in Serbia and Albania.
Trump’s circle does not hide that Belgrade, tied to Moscow, is his preferred partner in Southeastern Europe.
Since the end of the Yugoslav wars in the 1990s, the US has always been the one to ultimately resolve many small conflicts within and between the successor states.
Now, not only observers but also many people in the Western Balkans wonder: What will happen if Washington no longer does this?
If President Trump abandons Ukraine, one of the closest US allies, as easily as he is doing now, how will he treat smaller countries like Bosnia or Kosovo? The EU must be prepared for all eventualities in Southeastern Europe. /DW
