The Balkan expert from the International Crisis Group, Marko Prelec, stated that it is essential to work on improving Kosovo-Serbia relations in everyday matters, while the political aspect of normalization, linked to de facto recognition, has not progressed. According to him, the Ohrid Agreement, designed as a step toward improving relations, faces obstacles due to the non-implementation of key obligations, such as the formation of the Association of Serb Majority Municipalities.
Marko Prelec assesses that the dialogue process between Serbia and Kosovo is currently on hold. He believes that relations between the two countries need both small and large normalization.
“Large normalization is de facto recognition, a step that would allow European countries that have not recognized Kosovo to take steps toward recognition. However, the chances for this are very slim. It is more realistic to hope for small normalization—improving daily relations, freer trade, and understanding the concrete problems that citizens face. Even this is not guaranteed, but it is possible,” Prelec explained to RTK.
Speaking about de facto recognition, Prelec stated that this should have been realized through the Ohrid Agreement.
“This phase anticipated that the Ohrid Agreement and its implementation should open the way for Kosovo’s recognition by the five EU countries that still do not recognize it, or at least improve relations with them. For Serbia, this would mean treating Kosovo as a sovereign and independent state, but without formal recognition,” he emphasized.
Prelec added that 2025 begins with expectations regarding the stance of U.S. President Donald Trump, while it remains to be seen how the dialogue will unfold under EU mediation and what impact the upcoming elections in Kosovo in February will have.
“It is clear that the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade must continue. The positions of both sides are well known, and the space for compromise is limited. There is little hope for major success, but the talks must continue, even though expectations for significant transformations are low. As for the implementation of the Ohrid Agreement, this appears to be an attempt by the EU to provide an optimistic image for a very complex issue,” Prelec noted.
When asked why an already agreed-upon agreement is not being implemented, Prelec pointed out that there is a text on paper, but also the essence of what was negotiated.
“The agreement is unusual. It was never signed; it was Borrell’s statement that declared it accepted. The essence of the agreement involves a series of concessions from both sides. Belgrade was supposed to take steps toward de facto recognition, while Pristina was to ensure greater autonomy for the Serb community,” he emphasized.
“Since the agreement was reached, the Kosovo government has made autonomy meaningless, not completely, but in many aspects, by asserting authority over northern Kosovo. The creation of the Association of Serb Majority Municipalities now matters less than when the agreement was reached. For this reason, I believe that Belgrade will continue to delay implementation, while Pristina is already delaying the creation of the Association,” Prelec stated.
Commenting on whether the next Kosovo government will need to create the Association, Prelec added: “It is difficult to predict. But the most important issue remains that of the rights of the Serb community and how those rights will be ensured and respected for Serb citizens living in Kosovo,” he concluded.
