NATO has published on Tuesday (July 9, 2024) the annual assessment of the Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, on Climate Change and Impact on Security.
The report notes that accelerating climate change has “a profound impact on the security of Allies” and emphasizes the need for NATO to remain adaptable in a rapidly changing environment.
Kosovo is also part of the report, due to the fact that there is a mission in the country with about 4,500 allied and partner troops operating throughout the country as part of NATO’s Kosovo Force (KFOR).
NATO’s secretary in the report said that Southeast Europe, including Kosovo, has been identified as one of the “hot spots” of the planet.
“The accelerated warming of the atmosphere in the region is leading to extreme weather events, such as the fires of 2017 and 2022, and severe flooding that Kosovo experienced in 2023. Such events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. Along with Kosovo’s socio-economic vulnerability and challenging security environment, climate change could have detrimental consequences for both Kosovo and NATO’s presence on the ground,” the report states.
Recalling that KFOR is the third security responder, after the Kosovo Police and EULEX, with which it works in close coordination. In addition, the report states that the NATO Advisory and Liaison Team (NALT) further supports security organizations in Kosovo that exercise civilian control and democratic oversight.
“NALT’s support for capacity building for the Kosovo Security Forces (KSF) covers crisis response, disaster management and civil protection,” the report says.
Among other things, it is said that Kosovo faces a number of challenges related to the environment.
“Environmental crime, such as illegal logging and littering, poses significant challenges to the ecosystem and the environment. These activities not only degrade natural resources and ecosystems, but also exacerbate the impacts of climate change by increasing pollution levels and reducing the ability of forests to act as carbon sinks.”
The report states that KFOR has been involved in monitoring environmental crimes and assessing the security of approximately 12 sites where toxic and radioactive materials are stored – many of which are inadequate for safe storage.
Meanwhile, it is emphasized that KFOR and KSF carry out monthly assessments of these facilities to ensure that they do not present additional environmental risks. In addition, the report states that KFOR has been instrumental in providing assistance following extreme weather events.
In 2022, the report states that KFOR has provided support in preventing the spread of forest fires.
Furthermore, it is noted that due to the mild winters recorded in January 2021, December 2022 and January 2023, Kosovo experienced two severe flooding events that destroyed several towns and villages, and resulted in drinking water interruptions, power outages electrical and evacuations.
In the above cases, the report states that the KSF search and rescue team provided support during the floods, with KFOR ready to intervene within means and capacities.
KFOR says it is not only able to provide immediate disaster relief, but also engineering and construction support: KFOR engineers are often called upon to assess bridges, roads and buildings after floods.
In addition to flooding, the report says extreme heat and particulate matter in the atmosphere have posed challenges to missions and assets, including vehicles.
To better understand the impact of extreme heat in the region, the NATO chief says in this report that predicted temperature changes over time were analyzed.
This report says that within this century, Kosovo risks reaching from 4.4 days with temperatures above 35°C, to 39.2 days a year with these temperatures.
“Looking at the days per year where temperatures rise above 35°C, the number increases dramatically over time. In the short term (2020-2039), only 4.4 days with temperatures above 35°C are predicted in the summer months. In the long term (2060-2079), this number increases to 21.2 days per year. At the end of the century (2080-2099), according to the worst case scenario SSP5-8.5, Kosovo is predicted to experience 39.2 days per year with temperatures exceeding 35°C”.
Under the worst-case SSP5-8.5 scenario, there will be a temperature increase of 4°C between the short-term and end-of-century periods, which could have dramatic consequences in the region and increase the number of “black flag weather days”.
Although the NATO report says the projected temperature increase is not as extreme as in some other geographic areas where NATO operates, it is still significant enough to amplify existing threats in an already hot environment and reduce operational days.
Also, it is said that even in the near term, this trajectory is expected to negatively affect productivity, potentially disrupting operations and increasing mortality from heat and air pollution.
Furthermore, projections of higher temperatures and increased fire risks, reduced rainfall and population growth, according to the report, suggest that by 2050, four of Kosovo’s five water basins could face stress* or scarcity water, which may affect the water supply both for the local population and for KFOR and NALT personnel.
“In conclusion, climate-related stresses may affect the work of security actors in Kosovo in several ways. First, the increase in climate-related events may increase the demand for the KSF to provide support to civil authorities. Supporting the development of civil emergency planning and crisis management capabilities, as well as the capacity to respond to climate events will need to remain a core element of the NALT Terms of Reference. In addition, this may also increase the demand for KFOR resources to directly assist the institutions in Kosovo,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s report said.
*Water stress occurs when the demand for water exceeds the amount available during a given period or when poor quality limits its use. Water stress causes deterioration of the amount of fresh water resources (over-exploitation of the aquifer, dry rivers, etc.)
