“Nothing indicates that they have the ability to make a significant breakthrough, but their advances have come at a great cost in terms of dead soldiers and lost equipment,” says Dalhaug.
Indeed, these extreme loss figures are highlighted by several military experts, including analysts from the British Ministry of Defence.
According to British estimates, an average of 1,262 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded each day in May. In June, the number fell to 1,163, possibly because the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region had stalled.
“The big question is whether the Russians can sustain the loss of 1,000-1,300 soldiers month after month, while having captured only slightly less than 1,000 square kilometers within a year. This is not a sustainable way to wage war,” says Tormod Heier, professor of strategy and military operations at the Norwegian Defence College (FHS).
Russian forces are losing valuable military equipment and using large quantities of ammunition. This weakens Russia’s military capacity with each passing day, says American General Ben Hodges in a discussion platform for The Times.
“A delayed weapons package from the U.S. and Ukraine’s own failure to mobilize new soldiers has put Ukraine on the defensive. They lack the soldiers to manage the long front line where they operate,” says Dalhaug.
“The Russian casualty numbers are very high; they have managed to recruit between 25,000 to 30,000 soldiers each month, covering the number of soldiers killed,” Dalhaug continues. Even though they have managed to recruit new soldiers, Dalhaug believes this continuously harms the Russian military, which must constantly train new soldiers.
When losses are so high, and recruitment is claimed to be dwindling, this results in increasingly less prepared soldiers being sent to the front. This then increases the rate of loss, leading them into a downward spiral, intensifying the losses,” he says.
There are indications that the shortage of soldiers is even greater than President Vladimir Putin had anticipated. A week ago, the Kremlin doubled the pay for those who volunteer to be stationed on the military front in Ukraine. They have been promised an immediate payment of 400,000 rubles—equivalent to around 50,000 NOK at today’s exchange rate.
“Putin would not have increased the bonus if the number of volunteers were high enough, a reliable indicator that they are short on soldiers,” says Arne Bård Dalhaug.
In the past, Russia has sent recruits from Central Asia and the more remote republics in eastern Russia to the front. If this is not enough, they may need to recruit from more populated areas like Moscow and St. Petersburg.
“If that happens, Putin moves into a zone with much greater political risk because these city residents are unlikely to be easily swayed by money. It was precisely from these areas that the largest exodus occurred when the war broke out in 2022,” says Dalhaug.
Russia also faces a desperate labor shortage, speculated to be as high as five million people. Revenue from oil and gas supplied to the industry has led to high inflation, and in mid-July, the Russian central bank announced that the base interest rate was raised from 16 to 18 percent in hopes of overcoming high inflation.
“They are on the verge of breaking the contract between the Kremlin and the people. Putin promised increased economic prosperity in exchange for being allowed to conduct politics without interference. It is unfortunate if this breaks. This has lasted longer than expected, but it is clear that the economy is now under pressure,” says Arne Bård Dalhaug.
“Russia is now losing as many soldiers (in just the last two weeks) as during the entire war in Afghanistan, without causing any significant political reaction from the population. This shows the level of repression by Putin’s dictatorial apparatus,” says Dalhaug.
Tormod Heier believes that it will take Putin a long time to carry out a new partial mobilization, as he did in 2022.
“The last time they attempted to recruit, about 700,000 potential Russian soldiers fled the country. I believe a new recruitment risks another unwanted exodus for the Kremlin, so the belief is that Putin is waiting to see the outcome of the U.S. election campaign. He hopes that if Trump returns to power, this might open up an opportunity to end the war under the best possible terms for Russia,” says Heier.
Ukraine is also struggling to recruit new soldiers for the war. In April, President Volodymyr Zelensky lowered the age of those who can be mobilized from 27 to 25.
