France is facing a deep political uncertainty, and risks entering the new year without a government or a budget, after opposition to Barnier’s 2025 budget plans aimed at reducing France’s deficit led to a vote rejection yesterday.
So, what can French President Emmanuel Macron do next? According to sources within his camp, he is reportedly looking to appoint a new prime minister very soon.
One source told Reuters that Macron aims to name a new prime minister before the ceremony reopening Notre-Dame Cathedral on Saturday, which is expected to be attended by US President-elect Donald Trump.
However, any new prime minister will face the same challenges as Barnier in dealing with the bills, including the 2025 budget, which must be approved by a divided parliament.
Several names are circulating in Paris for the next prime minister:
- Bernard Cazeneuve, 61 – Former prime minister and interior minister during President François Hollande’s administration.
- Sébastien Lecornu, 38 – A capable politician who became the youngest-ever Minister of Defense since the French Revolution in 2022. He is a Macron loyalist.
- François Bairoux, 73 – A veteran of the center-right who leads the MoDem party, Macron’s key parliamentary ally.
- Jean Castex, 59 – Former prime minister under Macron, known for his southern French accent and administrative skills. He currently heads RATP, the state-owned company operating Paris Metro.
The clearest path for Macron to appoint a new prime minister, who can form a government and approve a budget before the end of the year, would be to give in to the budget demands of the far right. However, this would mean abandoning his efforts to reduce France’s large budget deficit.
Macron could ask Barnier and his ministers to stay on as a caretaker government to handle day-to-day affairs. This would buy him time to find a prime minister who can garner enough cross-party support to pass legislation.
A caretaker government could propose emergency legislation to cancel spending limits and tax provisions from the 2024 budget.
Otherwise, Macron may resort to special powers to approve the 2025 budget through executive order, but legal experts say this is a gray area. Such a move would also lead to further political unrest.
The risk for Macron is that his opponents will vote against each other for the prime minister candidates he proposes.
Opponents say the only meaningful way to end the political crisis is for him to resign. However, Macron has insisted he will serve out the remainder of his term until 2027.
