The New York Times analyzes why Russia is unlikely to accept a new 20-point plan aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, unveiled by President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday.
As the article notes, Zelensky sought to reframe negotiations within a framework that includes security guarantees demanded by Kyiv and a road map for Ukraine’s reconstruction. He described the proposal as a “reasonable compromise” compared with a plan drafted earlier by Kirill Dmitriev, a special envoy of Vladimir Putin, and Steve Witkoff, a special envoy of Donald Trump, presented in November.
However, in Moscow—according to the NYT—the initial reaction suggests the plan is unlikely to be accepted by the Kremlin, which appears emboldened by developments on the battlefield and constrained by the difficulty of “selling” any deal at home that would not be perceived as a victory.
“An Absolute Mockery”
The phrase “absolute mockery,” used by international affairs analyst Alexei Naumov, captures the tone of the reaction. Writing on Telegram, he said:
“This is an absolute mockery. The idea is clear: sell it to the Americans as a ‘compromise,’ and then blame Russia for its failure.”
The report recalls that President Vladimir Putin has insisted for two years on two core conditions: the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the remaining parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, and the exclusion of Ukraine’s NATO membership.
This position was reaffirmed at Putin’s annual marathon press conference last Friday, where he said Russia could make some “concessions”—believed to include abandoning certain territories it holds in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia—while making clear that Moscow remains prepared to continue the war to fully seize the Donetsk region.
Territorial Deadlock
According to the article, the Ukrainian plan calls for Russian troop withdrawals from Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions. It also envisages Ukraine pulling back from parts of Donetsk that would become a demilitarized zone, but only if Russia withdraws from an equivalent area of territory.
In this context, Russian analyst Georgy Bovt argues that the proposal fails to resolve the core issues of territory and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, both under Russian occupation. Kyiv, the report notes, would prefer to operate the plant jointly with the United States.
“The plan offers no compromise on territories or on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Failure to address the territorial issue makes it difficult for it to serve as a starting point for an agreement,” Bovt is quoted as saying.
Kremlin’s Calculus
The NYT adds that although a full-scale invasion has imposed heavy costs on Russia’s economy and military, the Kremlin believes it has more to gain by continuing the war. Russia’s economy is described as the weakest since 2022, with interest rates at historic highs and growth trending toward recession—yet, analysts say, not near a crisis severe enough to force a change in course.
On the battlefield, Russia reportedly controls around three-quarters of Donetsk, and at the current pace would need about 18 months to capture the entire region. Meanwhile, hardline security official and former president Dmitry Medvedev said on Wednesday that about 417,000 recruits signed new contracts to join the Russian army in 2025—a figure largely consistent with independent estimates. The steady flow of recruits, the report notes, allows Russia to sustain the war despite heavy losses.
Diplomatic Poker
Diplomatically, the article argues that Moscow has an incentive to stay engaged in negotiations to preserve a working relationship with Washington and avoid bearing full responsibility for prolonging the conflict. Russia is also keen to delay additional U.S. sanctions or restrictions, referencing Trump-era sanctions imposed in October on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, which reportedly forced Russia to sell oil at steeper discounts.
The ongoing “push and pull” over the terms of a potential deal could widen frictions between Ukraine and its Western allies, as details are debated across different capitals.
In Ukraine, analyst Volodymyr Fesenko assessed in a Facebook post, as cited by the NYT, that Putin has no intention of ending the war or making even limited concessions at this stage:
“Putin does not intend to end the war against Ukraine, nor is he ready to make small concessions at this stage. For the Kremlin, discussing Trump’s peace plan is merely a tactical game played with the United States to maintain constructive relations with the current American president, while simultaneously creating friction and contradictions between the United States and Ukraine.” /NYT
