Polish voters are casting their ballots today in a highly contested presidential runoff that could significantly shift the country’s domestic and foreign policy direction. Nearly 29 million eligible citizens are voting between two starkly different candidates: Rafal Trzaskowski, the pro-European liberal mayor of Warsaw, and Karol Nawrocki, a right-wing populist historian backed by allies of Donald Trump and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.
Polling stations opened early Monday morning and will remain open until 9 p.m. local time. Voting has already concluded in several countries with large Polish diaspora communities, including the United States, where interest in the election has surged. A record 750,000 diaspora voters registered this round—200,000 more than in the first round held on May 18.
Runoff Seen as a Turning Point for Poland
The first round of voting saw Trzaskowski’s liberal platform narrowly edge out Nawrocki’s populist campaign by less than 1.5%, setting the stage for a dramatic showdown.
Both camps have framed this election as existential. Trzaskowski’s win would empower Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European government to begin dismantling authoritarian elements entrenched during the rule of the Law and Justice (PiS) party. These elements include controversial judicial reforms and politically influenced appointments to key institutions like the Constitutional Tribunal and parts of the Supreme Court, which remain under conservative control.
Nawrocki’s victory, however, would likely stall reform efforts, as the president holds veto power and the ruling coalition lacks the parliamentary majority needed to override it. Nawrocki has been endorsed by international far-right figures but notably did not receive support from radical nationalist leader Slawomir Mentzen, suggesting divisions even within the right.
Fears of a Disputed Outcome Loom
Polls indicate a razor-thin lead for Trzaskowski—within the margin of error—raising concerns about the legitimacy of the final result. Analysts say the outcome may not be clear even after polls close. Exit polls, typically reliable in Poland, may be too close to call tonight.
Adding to the tension, outgoing President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, hinted during a recent campaign event that Nawrocki might refuse to concede if he loses, citing potential “election fraud”—mirroring strategies used by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
The final results are expected to be announced on Monday by Poland’s State Electoral Commission. Yet, even that may not be the end of uncertainty. The legitimacy of the election could be challenged, especially since the Supreme Court chamber responsible for certifying results is under the influence of conservative holdovers not recognized by the Tusk government or the European Union as independent.
