Politico – The Next Papal Election: A Historic Battle of Ideologies

As Pope Francis’ health remains critical, speculation about his potential successor is intensifying within the Vatican. The next papal election is expected to be one of the most unpredictable in modern history due to the significant structural changes Francis has introduced within the College of Cardinals.

During his tenure, Pope Francis expanded the geographical diversity of the cardinal-electors, appointing 73 out of 138 eligible cardinals from outside Europe. This shift has disrupted traditional networks of influence, making pre-election alliances and strategic planning among cardinals more challenging. Vatican experts believe that many cardinals barely know each other, making consensus-building a complex process.

Potential successors include figures from different ideological backgrounds, such as conservative German cardinal Gerhard Müller, progressive Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, and Pope Francis’ close ally, Cardinal Pietro Parolin. However, internal divisions within the Vatican bureaucracy, known as the Curia, may lead to factional disputes, with conservatives seeking to block any candidate aligned with Francis’ progressive policies.

Despite efforts by Vatican media to maintain a composed outlook, there are increasing signs that preparations for a conclave may already be underway. The next election is poised to shape the future direction of the Catholic Church, determining whether the institution will continue along the path of reform or shift back to a more traditionalist approach.