Warnings from high-ranking state officials about security threats from Serbia in Kosovo have intensified recently.
Such statements are seen as necessary— even essential— but on the other hand, they are considered harmful as they might scare off foreign investors.
In fact, statements about security threats from Serbia have been ongoing, but they have increased, especially after the terrorist attack on September 24 in Banjska, where Kosovan Police Sergeant Afrim Bunjaku was killed. High-ranking political figures have alarmed the international community that the Serbian military is conducting exercises near the Kosovo border.
However, these warnings have become even more pronounced in recent weeks.
First, the Speaker of the Assembly of Kosovo, Glauk Konjufca, openly stated that Kosovo institutions have accurate information that a group of hundreds of people is training in Serbia and preparing for another potential attack in Kosovo.
“While we are speaking, our institutions have accurate information that another group of hundreds of people is doing the same thing in Serbia, training, preparing for a potential attack that we might experience,” Konjufca declared.
On July 9, 2024, the Speaker reiterated that if Serbia goes unpunished for the September 24 attack in Banjska, it will repeat the scenario on a larger scale.
Afterward, the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, stated that although Kosovo’s democracy is growing, so are the threats to its security.
Kurti expressed that the threat from Serbia is real. He emphasized that Kosovo is preparing to make the Serbs think twice before attacking. Kurti mentioned increasing the budget for the army, increasing the number of soldiers, and purchasing weapons from the US and Turkey.
Among other things, he mentioned that the Serbian army recently conducted a military exercise with offensive weapons in Peshter of Sandžak, about 30 kilometers from the border with Kosovo, only 3 kilometers from Montenegro.
According to Kurti, they did not do this in Vojvodina near Hungary, but directed it towards Montenegro and Kosovo, making it clear that their frustration with Kosovo’s success translates into increased aggression.
“Therefore, we need to take measures to be as prepared as possible so that they think twice before attacking us, so they do not attack us. If they decide to attack us, then they fail as they have before,” Kurti said in an interview with A2CNN.
Most recently, the Chair of the Oversight Committee of the Kosovo Intelligence Agency, Ganimete Musliu (PDK), said that Serbia’s efforts to escalate the situation continue.
Based on state intelligence data, she said that the terrorist group led by Milan Radoičić continues to train around Novi Pazar, Kopaonik, and Kraljevo.
“The terrorist group remains structured, has sufficient financial means, weapons, and support from official Belgrade. They are continuously planning and discussing possibilities for attacks. Radoičić is maintaining contacts with radical groups and organizations. The Serbian army has increased the presence of patrols in the area around the border with Kosovo, especially from Zubin Potok to Leposavić,” she said after the report of the head of the Kosovo Intelligence Agency, Petrit Ajeti, in the parliamentary oversight committee.
According to her, the increase in military capacities and exercises are indicators that Serbia continues to have aggressive intentions towards Kosovo.
The President of the Kosovo Chamber of Commerce, Lulzim Rafuna, asks the Government of Kosovo and the country’s leaders to be more careful with the messages conveyed through statements about the country’s security.
“These statements about insecurity and warnings about a new attack are becoming obstacles to attracting foreign investments in the country,” says Rafuna.
Despite the ongoing issues with Serbia, according to him, this should not be an obstacle for the state to work more to bring foreign investments to Kosovo and to prove that the country is a stable and friendly state.
But not everyone thinks the same.
The founder and executive director of the Economic Initiative for Kosovo in Vienna, Kujtim Dobruna, says that the threat from Serbia is real and serious.
“Therefore, given that the threat is serious, the statements of state officials are not only appropriate but also necessary,” he said.
According to him, statements from officials are appropriate because raising awareness leads to mobilization, mobilization to discouragement of the aggressor, and discouragement to increased security, which is essential for foreign investors.
“When the state acts and extends its sovereignty, it strengthens legitimacy and security, which are the best signals for legal security for foreign investors,” he added.
Nevertheless, Dobruna assesses that Kosovo has not managed to attract large investors.
Based on statistics, he says that the majority of foreign investments in Kosovo come from the diaspora and are mainly dedicated to real estate purchases.
Dobruna sees these threats as more serious since the appearance of the banner “When the army returns to Kosovo,” which began to appear before the terrorist attack on September 24.
According to him, this is the best indicator that these statements are not empty words, but part of Serbia’s warmongering propaganda and preparation of public opinion.
“Not a single day goes by without this threat being repeated by high-ranking Serbian state officials, including Vučić,” he added.
Political analyst Seb Bytyçi says that security threats are real and only need to be careful not to be distorted because Western allies have intelligence on these threats, and they are not fabricated.
Regarding investments, Bytyçi said that Kosovo has very few foreign investments, mostly from the diaspora, and this means that their intimidation impact is relatively small.
“The entire narrative of foreign direct investments needs to be rethought because the evidence shows that foreign investments in a country follow development and are not what bring development,” he said, adding that the focus should be on domestic investments and industrial policies to achieve development.
In the report of the US State Department published on July 18, 2024, it is noted that ongoing tensions with Serbia continue to be an obstacle to attracting foreign investments.
“A small, albeit growing, domestic market, limited regional integration, and ongoing tensions with Serbia remain the most significant obstacles to attracting Foreign Direct Investments,” the report states.
Among other things, it states that sometimes capricious economic policies of the government, political interference in the economy, and limited public-private dialogue also present challenges for investors.
“Investors are attracted by Kosovo’s young population, low labor costs, proximity to the EU market, and natural resources. Global supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have sparked greater interest from some businesses to use Kosovo as a production base targeting the EU market,” the report states.
In the early hours of September 24, 2023, a police unit patrolling the village of Zveçan reported that two trucks had been placed on the bridge leading into the village of Banjska, which contains dozens of houses.
Police Sergeant Afrim Bunjaku, along with two of his colleagues, responded to the case. As they approached the trucks to see what was happening, a remote-controlled anti-personnel grenade exploded.
Bunjaku was killed in the attack on September 24, 2023, while his two colleagues were injured. After receiving information about the explosion and shooting at the police, other response units headed towards Banjska.
Various footage published by the Kosovo Police showed moments captured by cameras placed on the armored vehicles of this institution while the terrorist group fired various weapons at them. Footage of the fighting between the terrorist group and the police was published on October 1, 2023, with the time shown as 4 AM.
Responsibility for the attack and logistics was claimed by the former vice-president of the Serbian List, Milan Radoičić, who was arrested on October 3, 2023, in Belgrade.
“I did not inform anyone about this, neither the structures of the government of the Republic of Serbia nor those in the north, and I had no help from them because until then we had different positions regarding protection from Kurti’s terror, as the Serbian people have offered resistance to Kurti’s terror in many cases for calming the political situation,” Radoičić’s letter read, which his lawyer read on September 29, 2024.
He did not do this publicly himself but through a letter read by his lawyer, Goran Petronijević. Moreover, in the same letter, he announced his resignation from his position in the Serbian List.
Radoičić was interviewed by the Prosecution in Serbia and was released to be investigated at liberty while continuing to live there.
