The political landscape of 2025 presents several pivotal challenges for the European Union (EU). With Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. President on January 20, the EU’s policies for the year are already under scrutiny. Radio Free Europe interviewed EU officials who revealed a sense of anticipation and concern over how to address various challenges that the new U.S. administration might present. From trade tariffs to defense spending, uncertainties loom large, reports RFE.
Ukraine’s Future: Europe’s Role Diminishing?
The conflict in Ukraine remains a critical focus. While hopes for a peace deal or ceasefire persist, many believe that the initiative lies primarily with the U.S. under Trump’s leadership. EU officials admit a lack of fresh ideas, relying on maintaining a seat at the negotiating table.
A recent proposal by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to use frozen Russian assets for purchasing U.S. arms has further sidelined Europe. This initiative channels funds primarily to the U.S., leaving the EU in a supporting role. Meanwhile, the EU has been leveraging these frozen assets as guarantees for loans to Ukraine, but this limited support underscores Europe’s waning influence in Kyiv.
Sanctions on Russia: A Tougher Stance?
The EU aims to tighten sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine. Under Poland’s presidency, hopes are high for a robust sanctions package to be unveiled by February 24, marking the invasion’s three-year anniversary. However, internal disagreements among the 27 member states, particularly Hungary’s opposition, could stall progress.
Hungary has demanded that the EU reconsider its sanctions policies, hinting at a resolution during an emergency summit. This diplomatic impasse raises questions about the bloc’s unity in addressing Russian aggression.
Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue: Will Talks Gain Momentum?
The Kosovo-Serbia normalization dialogue, mediated by the EU since 2011, is set to intensify following Kosovo’s parliamentary elections on February 9. EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas plans to visit the Western Balkans, aiming to rejuvenate negotiations. However, with Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti and Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić showing little willingness to compromise, progress remains uncertain.
Peter Sørensen, a seasoned Danish diplomat, is expected to replace Miroslav Lajčák as the EU’s special envoy for the dialogue. His appointment reflects a renewed commitment to facilitating talks, yet the path forward remains fraught with challenges.
EU Enlargement: Progress and Setbacks
The EU’s enlargement agenda features prominently in 2025. Ukraine and Moldova are poised to open new negotiation chapters under Poland’s presidency. Serbia, too, may advance its EU accession process despite criticism of its close ties with Russia. Conversely, Georgia faces stagnation, with Brussels considering suspending its visa liberalization.
In the Western Balkans, Albania continues its steady progress, while Montenegro aims to conclude its negotiations, positioning itself as the EU’s 28th member by the decade’s end. North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, however, remain mired in political and reform gridlock.
Political Instability Across Europe
Populist forces continue to gain traction in Europe, complicating the EU’s internal dynamics. Germany’s parliamentary elections in February could see the far-right AfD secure unprecedented support. France, Spain, and the Netherlands face political volatility, while Austria’s far-right FPO forms its first government. These developments could tilt Europe toward more populist policies, affecting the EU’s cohesion and decision-making.
The EU faces a year of significant challenges, from managing transatlantic relations under a new U.S. administration to addressing internal divisions and geopolitical threats. With key decisions on Ukraine, Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, and sanctions on Russia, 2025 will test the EU’s ability to act as a unified and decisive global actor.
