Russia and Belarus have begun major joint military drills, Zapad-2025, amid rising regional tensions following Russian drones entering Polish airspace. The exercises, which run from September 12 to September 16, will take place across Belarus and Russia.
Purpose of the Zapad-2025 Exercises
Russian officials stated that the drills aim to simulate repelling an enemy attack, while analysts believe a key goal is to demonstrate Russia’s military strength after 3½ years of the ongoing war in Ukraine.
“The purpose is for [President Vladimir] Putin to show that the war in Ukraine hasn’t weakened them,” said Lance Landrum, retired US Air Force Lieutenant General and CEPA senior fellow.
This year’s exercises will also practice decision-making for the use of Russian nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable intermediate-range missiles, which Russia has pledged to supply to Belarus. Belarusian President Lukashenko confirmed the country has several dozen tactical nuclear weapons.
NATO and Regional Reactions
Ukraine and neighboring countries, including Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, are watching the drills closely. NATO has stated it monitors Russian military activity and urged predictability and transparency during the exercises but does not see any immediate threat to members.
“The Kremlin has a history of using exercises to pursue coercive policies,” a NATO spokesperson said.
Troop Numbers and Scale
Belarus initially announced 13,000 troops, but revised estimates suggest 7,000–8,000 personnel for Zapad-2025. Russia is sending about 2,000 troops, while the drills also cover Moscow and Leningrad military districts, Kaliningrad, the Arctic, and the Baltic and Barents seas.
Other CSTO exercises with Russia and member states may mask the full scale of Zapad-2025. This is significantly smaller than the 200,000 troops in Zapad-2021.
Strategic Significance
Although smaller than previous years, the exercises are significant for assessing Russia’s approach to a potential NATO conflict and understanding strategic decision-making, including nuclear weapon use planning (without physical deployment).
Belarusian President Lukashenko has signaled a willingness to engage with the West, including recent political prisoner releases and dialogue with the US, which may influence the broader geopolitical impact of the drills.
“If these exercises proceed transparently, they could pave the way for further dialogue,” noted Ryhor Astapenia of Chatham House.
