What Could Happen to Russia if It Rejects the Ceasefire Agreement?

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U.S. President Donald Trump has urged Russia to accept a 30-day ceasefire, warning of additional sanctions if Moscow refuses the American proposal.

“Russia has no way out except for a ceasefire. If necessary, we will sanction it, although I hope we won’t have to,” Trump stated at the White House on Wednesday.

Financially, the U.S. has the capacity to impose “very unpleasant, very bad, and devastating” measures on Russia, Trump added.

The proposal comes after Ukraine agreed to the temporary ceasefire following nine hours of negotiations with U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia.

Since taking office in January, Trump has prioritized ending Russia’s three-year-long invasion of Ukraine, quickly dispatching senior officials to Moscow and Kyiv to lay the groundwork for peace talks.

While Trump has considerable leverage over Ukraine—primarily through military aid and intelligence-sharing—he lacks the same level of influence over Russia, which is already under heavy Western sanctions.

Will Putin Stall the Ceasefire Talks?

Experts suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin may delay ceasefire negotiations to improve Russia’s battlefield position and gain a stronger hand in future peace talks.

Currently, Russian forces are advancing in eastern Ukraine while also repelling Ukrainian forces near the Kursk region.

Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Kursk in August last year, capturing some Russian territory with the hope of exchanging it for its own land in eventual peace talks. However, Russia has since reclaimed more than half of the territory it initially lost there.

Territorial Concessions Likely?

Trump hinted that Ukraine might have to make territorial concessions, a scenario that experts increasingly view as inevitable given Russia’s battlefield gains.

“When we talk about a ceasefire [with Ukraine], we are talking about land, about who pulls back—we discussed many things [with Ukraine],” Trump said.

“We don’t want to waste time—people are dying. Russia is not in the best situation right now. I hope [Putin] accepts the ceasefire,” he added.

What’s Next?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the 30-day ceasefire agreement could serve as a framework for a broader peace deal with security guarantees for Ukraine.

“It’s now up to Russia to decide what happens next—whether it wants to continue its aggression against Ukraine or not,” Zelensky said at a press conference.

The Kremlin has yet to comment on the ceasefire proposal, and it remains unclear whether Putin has made a decision.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow is awaiting further details from Washington, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the U.S. would be in contact with Russian officials today.

In his first comments after leaving the Jeddah negotiations, Rubio expressed hope that Russia would respond positively to the ceasefire proposal and called on Moscow to halt hostilities.

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