Russia is likely behind the protests against Serbia’s agreement with the European Union on lithium mining, as a broad network of Russian-linked actors, including mass media, political parties, and extremist organizations, has been involved in mobilizing protesters.
According to a report by the Guildhall, cited by the Ukrainian national agency Ukrinform, “the disruption of such an agreement aligns with Russia’s interests,” based on a non-public report from the Center for Defense Reforms titled “Russian Influence in Environmental Protests in Serbia, August 2024.”
The report notes that Western experts view the protests as being organized exclusively by environmental organizations and local entrepreneurs, supported by Russian diplomatic efforts, including a statement from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and special representatives of the Serbian government with ties to Russia, including Aleksandar Vulin, who was awarded the Order of Friendship by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service.
“A network of Russian-linked organizations, including radical and far-right groups, football ultras, environmental organizations, and opposition parties, are involved both in influencing the disruption of the agreement and in mobilizing the population for action on the ground,” stated the expert group.
The report highlights that the campaign is promoted by Russian state-controlled media, including Russia Today Balkans, which covered the protests, including the major one in Belgrade on August 10, as well as Sputnik Serbia, which reported on the arrest of campaign activists.
An extremist and far-right network linked to the Russian military intelligence (GRU), including the People’s Patrol, whose leader Damjan Knezevic visited the Wagner Group base in St. Petersburg in 2022, and Srbska Akcija Klub 451 (Club 451), and their youth wing Zborashka omladina, Zentropa, and the neo-fascist Obraz, is also involved.
Analysts point out the participation of Serbian ultras, especially those linked to FC Partizan, known for its ties to GRU unit 29155 as part of a campaign to destabilize Moldova, and FC Crvena Zvezda, which has a partnership with Spartak Moscow ultras. The team is sponsored by Russia’s energy giant Gazprom. According to the report, the ultras were exerting influence aimed at opposing lithium mining in the country and highlighting tensions in Kosovo.
The report also separately analyzes the involvement of Russian-linked political forces, including Dveri, the Movement for the Revival of the Kingdom of Serbia, the New Democratic Party of Serbia, We Are the Power of the People, and individual environmental organizations such as Protect Jadar and Raђevina and KORS (Coalition for Sustainable Mining).
Analysts note that participants in the campaign, especially representatives of extremist organizations and politicians, have called on Russia to “intervene.” The leader of the People’s Patrol, Damjan Knezevic, made a relevant statement, emphasizing that he “understands the foreign policy of fraternal Russia as non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, but this is already an unstable position if you want to remain a superpower.”
Previously, Mladjan Djordjevic, a leader of the Serbian opposition and deputy chairman of Osloboђenje, led by KGB officer Andrey Belyaninov, had published a photo on X with Leonid Reshetnikov, a lieutenant general of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), colloquially referred to as the governor of the Balkans and the architect of Russian policy in the region, also involved in GRU-organized coup attempts in Montenegro and Bulgaria. The caption of the photo called on the Russian president to “intervene” and, if necessary, “overthrow Vučić’s regime.” However, the next day (August 23), Djordjevic stated that his page was suspected to have been hacked and deleted the post.
In this regard, Atlantic Council analyst Ruslan Trad mentioned Reshetnikov’s involvement in the attempted coup in Bulgaria, stating that such intervention efforts are characteristic of these activities.
“That’s what Reshetnikov does: he intervenes. His main focus is the Balkans, and he is expanding Russian networks throughout the region. This is what he did in Bulgaria a few years ago (the coup attempt),” said the analyst.
“Relations between Serbia and Russia are very specific and go beyond the prism of ‘fraternal nations and partners.’ This is not the first time Moscow has threatened Vučić—previously due to disagreements over the creation of a Russian base in Serbia, such hybrid tactics are part of Moscow’s toolkit,” said Trad.
According to the expert, such threats aim not only to oppose the lithium mining agreement with the EU but also to undermine Serbia’s rapprochement with the EU.
“Lithium is an important issue (for the Russian Federation), but Vučić is increasingly demonstrating independence, which annoys Moscow. He publicly declares that the Kremlin is the most loyal ally, but this is not enough for Putin, who wants to hear comments on ‘fraternal nations.’ But Vučić would flirt with the EU, which is noticeable, as well as with China,” said the expert.
On the other hand, Serbian journalist Milosh Jovanović of Nova.rs believes that Gjorgjeviç’s calls to Russia to intervene are part of a hybrid operation by Russia aiming to intimidate Vučić into opposing his government’s rapprochement with the West.
“They seek to intimidate Vučić somewhat, not just because of the lithium agreement, but because we are surrounded by NATO and EU countries and even those countries that are not part of these alliances want to join. Vučić is clearly under pressure from such countries; we are the only country, along with Belarus, that has not imposed sanctions against Russia and Wagner,” said Jovanović.
