Russia has effectively lost Venezuela as a strategic ally, marking a significant political and symbolic setback for the Kremlin, even though the direct financial losses are expected to remain limited.
More than six years ago, the Kremlin signaled it could abandon support for Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in exchange for concessions in Ukraine, according to Fiona Hill, a former adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, who testified before Congress in 2019. That leverage, however, has now disappeared.
During the first week of January, Russia’s position in Venezuela quietly collapsed, depriving Moscow of both a loyal partner and a bargaining chip in its broader geopolitical negotiations with the West.
Political Losses Outweigh Economic Damage
While Russia’s economic exposure in Venezuela was relatively small, the political costs are far more damaging. The Kremlin has lost a long-standing ally in the Western Hemisphere, underscoring the limits of Moscow’s influence abroad amid its ongoing war in Ukraine.
Despite years of rhetoric and promises, Russia’s partnership with Caracas yielded few tangible benefits. Trade between the two countries never exceeded $1 billion annually, and many large-scale projects failed to materialize.
From Strategic Outpost to Fading Partnership
Moscow began courting Venezuela in the mid-2000s, initially viewing the country as an economic partner and later as a strategic outpost near U.S. territory. Relations deepened significantly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when Maduro openly echoed Kremlin narratives, branding Ukraine’s leadership a “neo-fascist elite.”
That same year, Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez attended the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, defying Western isolation of Russia. Shortly thereafter, Venezuelan avocados entered the Russian market, becoming a symbol of the partnership’s limited commercial scope.
Military Cooperation and Oil Ties Fall Short
Between 2004 and 2018, Russia provided an estimated $34 billion in loans to Venezuela, primarily for arms purchases, making Caracas the largest importer of Russian weaponry, according to Transparency International and SIPRI.
However, military cooperation failed to deliver meaningful strategic returns, while oil collaboration also faltered. Rosneft, Russia’s energy giant, withdrew from Venezuela in 2020 under U.S. sanctions, transferring assets to a state-run entity. Production targets were never met, and estimated losses ranged between $6 billion and $9 billion.
Sanctions and Strategic Retreat
Sanctions on both Venezuela and Russia halted new investments and loans, leaving most joint ventures abandoned. Arms exports stalled, oil projects became commercially unviable, and Russia’s broader retreat from Latin America accelerated.
As with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, Moscow’s loss in Venezuela is primarily geopolitical rather than economic. For the second time in two years, Russia has failed to protect a close ally, weakening its global standing and limiting its leverage in negotiations with Washington.
Ultimately, Russia has lost a symbolic ally once portrayed as its key partner in the region—leaving behind little more than rhetoric, unrealized projects, and a forgotten shipment of avocados.
