Airspace violations over NATO countries, blamed on Russia, reached an unprecedented level this month, raising questions about whether the Kremlin is testing the alliance’s readiness to respond to a direct attack, or attempting to divert its focus and resources away from the war in Ukraine.
Russia has been breaching the airspace of its NATO neighbors for decades, usually denying or dismissing incidents as accidental. But since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, such incursions carry a far greater threat — none more so than two weeks ago, when drones flooded into Poland, prompting NATO to scramble fighter jets to intercept them, Associated Press reports.
Estonia reported that Russian fighter jets entered its territory last week, staying for 12 minutes — a claim Moscow denied. Romania and Latvia also reported Russian drone violations this month.
According to AP, the most serious incident occurred on September 10 in Poland, when authorities said some 20 Russian drones penetrated deep into rural areas before being shot down by NATO aircraft or crashing on their own. This marked the first direct military engagement between NATO and Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.
Moscow denied targeting Poland, while its ally Belarus claimed the drone signals had been jammed by Ukraine, which borders Poland. But European leaders called the event a deliberate provocation, pointing to Estonia’s airspace violation and other recent incidents as further evidence of a broader scheme orchestrated by Moscow.
Before launching the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin had demanded that NATO abandon any plans of offering Kyiv membership and withdraw allied troops from Russia’s borders — including from the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, former Soviet republics that joined both NATO and the EU in the early 2000s. NATO rejected those demands.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has also warned NATO not to allow Kyiv to strike deep into Russia with Western-supplied long-range weapons, threatening retaliation by targeting military facilities in NATO countries enabling such strikes. Such a move would carry enormous risks, potentially sparking direct conflict between Russia and NATO — where the alliance holds a significant conventional weapons advantage.
Some analysts see the recent spike in Russian airspace violations as an attempt to test NATO’s reactions in order to exploit any hesitation or disunity. Others believe Moscow hopes to divert NATO’s attention and resources away from supporting Ukraine and toward defending its own territory.
