As Germany approaches its national election on February 23, a Russian disinformation campaign aims to influence the outcome, bolster the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), and undermine mainstream political parties, according to a report by German think-tank CeMAS.
Key Findings of the CeMAS Report
- Social Media Activity: Hundreds of German-language posts on X (formerly Twitter) over the past month reflect patterns of Russia’s Doppelgaenger disinformation campaign, previously denounced by German, U.S., and French authorities.
- Tactics: The campaign involves sharing falsified or misrepresented articles from German news outlets, blaming the Greens for economic problems, criticizing Chancellor Olaf Scholz for supporting Ukraine, and portraying conservatives as unreliable—all while promoting the AfD.
- Amplification: These posts, often boosted by fake accounts, have garnered over 2.8 million views, CeMAS reported.
The Doppelgaenger campaign, launched after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, seeks to weaken Western support for Kyiv by spreading misinformation, according to a German foreign ministry report.
Impact on Election Dynamics
The latest poll by INSA places:
- The conservatives at 29%
- The AfD at 21% (double its 2021 election result)
- The Social Democrats (SPD) at 16%
- The Greens at 13%
This strong AfD performance could complicate coalition-building, potentially leading to governance challenges.
The Role of X and Elon Musk
- AfD Endorsement: X owner Elon Musk endorsed the AfD in December and hosted a live chat with its chancellor candidate, Alice Weidel, further amplifying the party’s reach.
- Disinformation Risks: X has been a primary platform for spreading misleading narratives, leveraging fake accounts and falsified content to influence public perception.
Broader Context: Russia’s Influence
Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (BfV) established a task force in November to counter foreign interference in the federal election. The agency noted increased “aggressive behavior” from Moscow, targeting Germany and other Ukraine allies due to their support for Kyiv.
The U.S. Justice Department has identified the Doppelgaenger operation as orchestrated by the Russian government through a network of marketing agencies.
