Rumors and speculation about the next wave of new mobilization have spread in Russia in recent months. Everything came to a head in early August after Ukraine’s sudden incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, then flared up again earlier this month after reports of testing a new electronic recruitment registration system and Vladimir Putin’s order for the military to find and add 180,000 more people. in the ranks of the army, members of whose insurgency are spending on offensives in eastern Ukraine.
Pro-Kremlin military bloggers and war correspondents have been advocating a new mobilization campaign since at least July, arguing that Russia needs it in case of further escalation of tensions with the West.Independent Russian media outlet Meduza spoke to sources in the Russian government about whether they expect the Kremlin to announce another round of mobilization in the foreseeable future. Their sources, as they say, are close to Putin’s administration and the Russian government, and they also spoke to two regional officials – of course, they all wanted to remain anonymous.
All of them stated that they do not notice any visible signs that the authorities are preparing for mobilization and that they doubt that a new round of mobilization will be announced “in the near future”, referring to the next two to four months.
“For our part, everything has been silent about the preparations for any activity, transport or location for the gathering of new recruits. There have been no directives, nor have there been discussions about estimates of how many people will be expected,” a regional official said.
A source close to the federal government, which works closely with regional administrations, confirmed that officials have not received any guidance on future mobilization. But another source from the regional government notes that governors and their subordinates may be the last to know about the next new round of mobilization.
“It’s an uncomfortable topic. People are concerned and (mobilization) is often mentioned in conversations. If something starts to happen at our level, it won’t be long before everyone knows about it,” the official said.
By the way, a survey of the independent Russian Field Research Group in June showed that the majority of Russians will not support the new wave of mobilization.
The fact is that Putin and his inner circle usually hide information about important decisions until the last moment, even from senior officials. For example, even in February 2022, many members of the Russian government were unaware of Putin’s aggressive plans to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in the same month.
According to Medusa sources close to the Kremlin, the topic of mobilization is currently one of the prevailing fears among Russians. “There is a constant negative background – rising prices, the special military operation itself. And mobilization is one of the main negative scenarios of the future that (people) are constantly thinking about,” says a source.
Russian society reacted violently to the ‘partial mobilization’ of 2022. Several hundred thousand people, mostly men of military age, Meduza recalled, left the country – though 15 to 45 percent of those who left after the war began have since returned to Russia. Dagestan was the only region where significant protests broke out, perhaps because, according to Russian media, any expression of anti-war sentiment in Russia is banned and severely punished.
The presidential administration also believes that the new mobilization could have a negative effect on Putin’s rating. However, sources were not inclined to speculate on whether the new round of mobilization would bring citizens to the streets. “Society’s reactions are often unpredictable. Protests can be triggered by seemingly minor issues such as environmental concerns, while large events often don’t trigger serious protests,” a source explains.
According to Medusa estimates, by mid-September 2024, the total number of Russian soldiers killed since the beginning of the war has reached 135,000 to 140,000 people. If this is added to the number of soldiers dismissed from service due to serious injuries, the total and partially irreparable Russian losses can range from 270 to 420 thousand (some Western estimates, like the British ones, speak of 600,000 people expelled from the machine, but many believe that this figure can be exaggerated). Recruiting soldiers by contract compensates somewhat for these losses, but very few people are left to expand the size of the army.
At the same time, the Kremlin’s ability to increase its military forces is significantly hampered by a lack of military equipment. Most of the tanks, combat vehicles and artillery guns have been taken and rebuilt from Soviet-era reserves, which are not unlimited.
Officials who spoke with Medusa stressed that the decision to announce a new round of mobilization will depend on a host of factors. “What will happen on the front line. If there is a stalemate, mobilization will become necessary. If the leadership determines that the military is making slow progress in the Donbass, it will also prompt a decision. If it succeeds, there may be a desire to secure them even more (from western long – range weapons) on Russian territory-we can respond with a new surge of people, or we can avoid it so as not to aggravate the situation at home to the Russian government.
However, sources are convinced that due to the introduction of the new electronic mobilization system, the new wave should not lead to the level of emigration caused from scratch, because the invitation itself will block the possibility of leaving the country. “Everything will be ready if we need it and we will not have the chaos that we had in the autumn of 2022,” a source close to Putin’s administration said. Simply, someone from the General Staff would go to the president and say ‘Well, we need to mobilize’. And the infrastructure would already be in place,” the source concluded.
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