Despite Ukraine’s willingness to move forward with an American plan for a ceasefire in the war, Russian President Vladimir Putin has given a hesitant “yes.” Former President Donald Trump has said he would be “disappointed” if Putin does not accept the agreement, though he has not made any clear statements about how he might force Putin to implement a 30-day ceasefire.
There are three main scenarios for how this situation could unfold:
- Sanctions
Trump has mentioned that he could implement “very heavy financial actions” against Russia, signaling the possibility of additional sanctions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and National Economic Council leader Kevin Hackett have echoed Trump’s statements, although specifics on the sanctions were not provided. Hackett has referred to a “carrot and stick” strategy. The U.S. has also considered easing sanctions on certain Russian banks involved in oil and gas transactions, which could serve as a “carrot” for negotiations, but only if Moscow agrees to talks.
Russia has indicated that it wants “larger carrots,” such as the demilitarization of Ukraine and the cessation of U.S. arms supplies to Kyiv. In terms of “sticks,” further sanctions could target third countries that purchase Russian oil above the Western-imposed price cap, including China, India, and Turkey, which are major consumers. Another possible measure could involve lowering the price cap to further limit Russian revenues.
- Tariffs
Another tool Trump could use is tariffs. While tariffs have had a significant effect in past international disputes, their impact would be limited in this case. Russia does not export much to the U.S. compared to other countries like China, Canada, and European Union members. Russian exports to the U.S. have dropped by over 80% since the war began, falling to their lowest level since 1992. In contrast, Russian exports to China have reached new highs.
One non-tariff measure suggested by Trump was for Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices by increasing production, but this idea has not aligned with Saudi interests.
- Arms
Trump’s special envoy to Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, introduced a third scenario involving escalating the war to push both parties to the negotiating table. Kellogg suggested a two-step strategy: first, telling the Ukrainians that they must come to the table, or U.S. support for them would cease, and second, threatening Putin with massive military aid to Ukraine if he refuses.
This scenario has been partially implemented, as the U.S. has provided military support to Ukraine, which is cheaper than direct engagement. However, flooding Ukraine with weapons could be costly and politically risky for an American president, especially one who has repeatedly emphasized the financial burden of the war. The second part of Kellogg’s strategy, involving massive military escalation, could have severe repercussions, potentially leading to further escalation of the conflict.
In conclusion, Trump’s approach to forcing a ceasefire in Ukraine is multifaceted, involving a mix of sanctions, tariffs, and military pressure. However, it remains to be seen how effective these tactics will be in convincing Putin to agree to a ceasefire, and whether they would lead to long-term stability in the region. The risks of escalation, particularly with the threat of a third world war, make the path to peace uncertain and fraught with danger.
