On January 1, Hungary handed over the six-month presidency of the EU to Poland, bringing to an end a turbulent six-month period for the Union.
Instead of acting as a neutral mediator, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban followed a confrontational line with Brussels, further straining relations with his EU partners through surprise visits to Moscow, Kyiv, and Beijing — claiming they were “peace missions,” though he had not coordinated these visits in advance with other member states.
“The Polish presidency of the EU Council is expected to be a balance of what happened in the past six months,” predicts Kai-Olaf Lang, an expert on Eastern Europe from the German Institute for Security and International Affairs in Berlin.
Lang told DW that the new presidency will focus particularly on the EU’s security policies and its relations with Ukraine and Russia.
“No One Can Outdo Me”
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is an experienced European politician. He served as President of the EU Council from 2014 to 2019, and was later appointed President of the European People’s Party, the largest political group in the European Parliament.
After eight years of governance by the conservative “Law and Justice” party (PiS), the political alliance that Tusk formed about a year ago declared him the winner in Poland’s general elections.
In his first public statement after assuming office as Prime Minister in December 2023, Tusk declared, “No one can outdo me in the EU.”
“Europe Speaks Our Language”
The presidency of the EU Council is the ideal opportunity for Tusk to show that his claim is not only words but also deeds. After 20 years as a full EU member, Poland is no longer a “student” but can even teach its “older” counterparts how to lead the Union.
“We are reliable. Europe speaks our language,” said Adam Szlapka, Poland’s minister for EU affairs, during a recent speech, as he presented Poland’s priorities during its presidency. Szlapka added that Poland is an “expert on the major challenges” that the West is facing.
Strong Arguments on Security Issues
For months, Tusk’s speeches have focused on calls to transform the security policies of Poland and other Eastern NATO members into EU-wide policies.
“We need to strengthen our relationship with the United States even more, but Europe must become more independent and ‘stand on its own feet.’ It is time to end the insecurity and fear of Russia,” he said ahead of the NB8 summit held at the end of November in Sweden, a gathering of the eight Nordic and Baltic states.
Poland is also leading in defense spending. It currently allocates 4.2% of its GDP to defense and aims to increase this to 4.7% by 2025.
This is not only a strong argument for other EU member states, but also a key topic in upcoming discussions with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who is seeking greater engagement from his European partners.
No Peace at Ukraine’s Expense
Tusk is determined to prevent any potential peace negotiations that would end the war in Ukraine at the expense of the Ukrainian people, especially between the U.S. and Russia. He also insists that the EU must have a seat at the negotiation table.
“Our EU Council presidency will jointly take responsibility for the negotiation situation, which could start this winter,” he said in December. “Ukraine must be present at every round of talks, and every variant or proposal must be accepted by our friends in Kyiv,” Tusk stated after meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Warsaw on December 12, 2024.
To be prepared for any possible scenario, Poland is building a defense line called the “Eastern Shield” along its border with Belarus, and seeks European financial support for it. Warsaw is also part of the European air defense space, known as the “European Air Shield.”
Poland’s Support for Defense Eurobonds
The Tusk government supports the idea of defense Eurobonds, though the creation of new debt in the EU is highly controversial within the bloc. The two member states most opposed to this idea are Germany and the Netherlands.
Ukraine Seeks Faster EU Membership
One year after the EU Council decided to open accession negotiations with Ukraine, Poland is pushing for talks to begin. Minister Szlapka suggested that the negotiations could start on issues such as the rule of law, human rights, and the fight against corruption.
However, while Kyiv wants the talks to cover as many areas as possible, Warsaw is reluctant to rush. This is because Poland is once again in the midst of an election year: in May 2025, Poles will elect a new president.
The importance of elections for the center-left coalition government cannot be underestimated. Thus, Tusk is unlikely to take the risk of launching any new European projects that may not be well received at home and could be used against him by the opposition.
Internal Political Constraints
Tusk’s assumption of office in December coincided with mass protests by farmers against the import of Ukrainian grain. Their blockades were raised along the Polish-Ukrainian and Polish-German borders.
Ukraine is hoping for a trade deal to resolve the issue of imports with the European Union in the coming years. However, it seems unlikely that Poland will make concessions to Ukraine on this issue.
Poland is also a staunch opponent of the free trade agreement with Latin America and is likely to do everything it can to prevent the deal before it is implemented. Warsaw has powerful allies in this, including France.
A potential change to EU treaties to allow more majority-based decisions within the EU is also a debated issue in Poland, meaning it is not a priority for the Polish presidency. The domestic conservative opposition sees this plan as a dismantling of the Polish state.
“No, we will not work in this direction, in changing the treaties. I don’t think this is something the Council is interested in,” said Polish Ambassador to the EU Agnieszka Bartol to the Polish Press Agency (PAP).
Impact of the Situation in Germany and France
Tusk is also very skeptical about the European Green Deal, devised by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The deal calls for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to zero within the EU by 2050.
Tusk said, “Naive ambitions to save the entire planet are hindering Europe’s competitiveness in the world. Decarbonization cannot be achieved through deindustrialization,” added Minister Szlapka, warning that citizens’ tolerance for climate policies is decreasing.
Poland’s presidency in the EU Council coincides with internal political crises in both Germany and France. Tusk wants to leverage the weakness of these two European superpowers to strengthen Poland’s status.
“Poland is showing itself to be extraordinarily proactive in positioning itself. However, coalitions with the Nordic and Baltic states will not be enough,” warns Eastern Europe expert Lang.
“Poland will present itself as a pro-European country that is ready to give shape to things,” adds Lang. “But Poland will constantly see that economic and political blockages in Germany and France will be obstacles for Europe and its development.” /DW
