Edward P. Joseph, lecturer at Johns Hopkins University and an expert in conflict management, has described a potential Serbian accession to NATO as the “Balkan equivalent of sinking the Moskva,” portraying Belgrade as Russia’s “warship” through which Moscow projects influence across the Balkans.
In an interview with REL, Joseph stressed that closer ties between Serbia and NATO would be a strategic blow to both Moscow and Beijing, who view Belgrade as their primary platform for influence in the region. He questioned why Serbia would consider such a move, given the country’s deep domestic affinity for Russia and the political manipulation surrounding pro-Russian sentiment.
Joseph highlighted several reasons why Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić would find it difficult to resist an American offer, particularly if it came from former President Donald Trump, who enjoys significant popularity in Serbia. Trump’s previous efforts to mediate Kosovo-Serbia normalization suggest that U.S. incentives could be substantial, despite Vučić’s past alignment with Russian interests.
Critically, Joseph noted that Vučić is politically weakened, with protests against his government continuing for over a year. Accepting NATO accession could shift domestic focus from growing civil unrest to a historic geopolitical decision, potentially allowing Vučić to try to rehabilitate his image while still exploiting nationalist sentiment. However, this also exposes the fragility of his leadership, as he balances between appeasing pro-Russian elements and pursuing pragmatic strategic gains.
Joseph also emphasized that Serbia is geographically and politically surrounded by NATO members—Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, and Montenegro—and that even Bosnia and Kosovo are moving toward Euro-Atlantic integration, making Vučić’s continued resistance increasingly untenable. Despite official rhetoric, many Serbian military officers privately support NATO membership, reflecting a stark contrast between public pro-Russian posturing and institutional realities.
On Kosovo, Joseph predicted that Greece might recognize Kosovo once the Statute of the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities is signed, paving the way for Romania, Slovakia, and Spain to follow. He stressed that while immediate recognition isn’t required, these countries should avoid blocking Kosovo’s NATO accession, further undermining Vučić’s long-standing obstructionist policies.
Overall, Joseph paints a picture of a Serbia trapped by Vučić’s failed political maneuvering: a leadership that rhetorically champions Russia yet is strategically isolated, economically dependent, and politically vulnerable. Within three years, Joseph suggests, the Balkans could see a dramatic shift, with reduced tensions, enhanced cooperation, and the weakening of Belgrade’s role as a Russian proxy—a development Vučić has long resisted at great cost to Serbia’s own international standing.
