American analyst and professor Daniel Serwer has analyzed U.S. policy towards the Western Balkans, claiming that the Biden administration’s approach to the region has been a failure. Serwer argues that the new Trump administration should avoid repeating the mistakes of the first Trump term, which had supported the division of Kosovo.
Serwer criticized the first Trump administration’s approach to the Balkans, stating that it favored the partition of Kosovo, which could have resulted in the division of Bosnia as well. He suggested this would have rewarded Serbia and Russia, a strategy that ultimately failed. He further warned that the incoming administration should not repeat this mistake.
“Trump’s first administration’s approach favored the partition of Kosovo, which would have resulted in the partition of Bosnia. This would have rewarded Serbia and Russia. The attempt failed. The new U.S. administration must not repeat this mistake,” Serwer wrote in his analysis.
He also noted that the Biden administration’s mistakes should be recognized, something that shouldn’t be difficult given the clear nature of the errors. According to Serwer, these mistakes include excessive support for Belgrade and Tirana, insufficient attention to corruption and the rule of law, and little support for the sovereignty of Bosnia and Kosovo.
Serwer pointed out that it would not be easy to change U.S. policy, as Serbia has built a strong relationship with former President Trump and his family over the past four years. He cited Jared Kushner’s investments in Serbian real estate funded by Saudi money, suggesting that if personal connections dominate, there is little hope for a positive change in U.S. policy toward the Balkans.
Potential for Change in U.S. Policy
Serwer also mentioned key figures such as Senator Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Keith Kellogg. He argued that they should be receptive to the idea that the U.S. must maintain strong relations with its allies. Rubio has supported Kosovo in the past, and Kellogg, according to Serwer, would not want instability in the Balkans while the U.S. is focused on resolving the war in Ukraine. He warned that any division of Bosnia or Kosovo would reward Russian aggression, a scenario that must be avoided.
