The United States appears ready to take military action against Iran within days. While potential targets are largely predictable, the outcomes remain uncertain. If no last-minute deal is reached and President Donald Trump orders a strike, experts identify seven main scenarios:
1. Targeted Strikes, Transition to Democracy
U.S. forces carry out limited, precise strikes against IRGC bases, Basij units, missile storage sites, and Iran’s nuclear program. In the most optimistic scenario, the regime collapses, leading to a functioning democracy. However, experiences in Iraq and Libya show that military intervention often brings chaos and bloodshed, even when authoritarian regimes are removed.
2. Regime Survives but Moderates Policies
The “Venezuelan model” sees the regime remain in power but curb support for violent militias, limit nuclear and ballistic programs, and ease domestic repression. Yet Iran’s leadership has historically shown long-term resistance to change, maintaining the status quo for decades.
3. Regime Falls, Replaced by Military Rule
Many consider this the most likely scenario. Internal protests have so far failed due to the regime’s extensive security apparatus. A U.S. strike could lead to a military government dominated by IRGC figures.
4. Iran Retaliates Against U.S. Forces and Allies
Iran may use its ballistic missiles and drones to target American bases and allied states such as Bahrain, Qatar, and Jordan. History shows such attacks can be economically and militarily disruptive, similar to the 2019 strike on Saudi Aramco.
5. Iran Mines the Persian Gulf
The Strait of Hormuz is critical for global oil transport, carrying 20–25% of world exports. Rapid mine deployment could severely disrupt global trade and spike energy prices.
6. Iran Sinks a U.S. Warship
The IRGC Navy is trained in asymmetric warfare, using drones and fast torpedo boats. Sinking a U.S. warship would be a major humiliation for America, as seen in previous incidents with USS Cole (2000) and USS Stark (1987).
7. Regime Collapse and Widespread Chaos
The most dangerous scenario involves civil war or escalation of ethnic tensions. Iran could descend into humanitarian crisis and mass refugee flows, while the wider Middle East, including Israel, might see the removal of the regime as beneficial—but the regional instability could be severe and prolonged.
Conclusion
President Trump, having amassed forces near Iran, faces a critical decision: act militarily with unpredictable consequences or step back and risk reputational damage. Any U.S. strike could trigger a major international crisis affecting Middle East stability, global markets, and world security.
