Speculation is mounting over a possible rift between Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and the now-former President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik. While Dodik publicly denies any conflict, describing Vučić as his “brother,” analysts in Banja Luka claim that Dodik is increasingly distancing himself from Belgrade.
The tension reportedly stems from Dodik’s recent statements asserting that neither Washington, Brussels, Moscow, nor Belgrade dictate Republika Srpska’s policies. Vučić, in response, reacted sharply, in contrast to the traditionally fraternal tone between the two leaders.
Historically, Vučić and Dodik have maintained a close relationship, appearing together at inaugurations of highways, stadiums, and trade fairs, as well as at election rallies. Their last official meeting took place in Belgrade on September 8, which Vučić described on Instagram as “brotherly.” However, since then, Dodik has not sent congratulations for key Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) milestones, raising questions about the state of their relationship.
The situation intensified following the recent lifting of U.S. sanctions against Dodik, his family, and close associates. The removal of sanctions was part of an agreement with Washington contingent on Dodik stepping down from the Republika Srpska presidency and repealing controversial laws that had led to his prior conviction. According to opposition MP Nebojša Vukanović, Vučić was reportedly unaware of Dodik’s move, which created tensions between the two leaders.
Vukanović added that a heated verbal confrontation reportedly occurred at Banski Dvor following a ceremonial event, after SNS leader Miloš Vučević allegedly told Dodik that he had “capitulated too easily.”
In public statements, Dodik emphasized his independence:
“I have no reason to justify myself. I am proud to be the elected president of Republika Srpska. My political career is determined by the people who vote for me, not by the U.S., Brussels, Moscow, or Belgrade.”
Vučić, for his part, stressed Belgrade’s support for Republika Srpska while downplaying any personal friction:
“I am sorry if anyone feels threatened by Belgrade. We have tried to support quietly and assist, but what can we do?”
Vukanović interprets Dodik’s stance as a strategic repositioning:
“Dodik has a history of realigning himself when he senses a leader’s influence is waning. He may now be shifting in response to American guidance or anticipating that Vučić’s era is coming to an end. It remains to be seen how Belgrade will respond.”
Despite the speculation, Dodik continues to publicly deny any disagreement, asserting that his relationship with Vučić is based on trust rather than politics.
