Military modernization in the Western Balkans is not merely about equipment — it reflects the ongoing competition of great powers for influence.
Serbia maneuvers between arms supplies from the West, China, and Russia, while most of its neighbors rely primarily on Western technology. Former Albanian Defense Minister Fatmir Mediu describes the region as a microcosm of global rivalry, with consequences stretching far beyond defense.
“Security today is not just about defense. It is about infrastructure, technology, politics, economics, and the military. Considering this, Serbia’s ties with Russia and China are a serious concern,” Mediu told RFE/RL’s Expose.
For Nikola Lunić, a Belgrade-based geopolitical and security consultant, the lack of coordination in arms acquisitions undermines Euro-Atlantic goals:
“It would be expected that if all countries seek NATO and EU membership, their defense structures should align. That means coordinated procurement. But in our region, because of unfinished history and nationalist narratives, this is not the case.”
Three countries — Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia — are NATO members. Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina aspire to join, while Serbia, though militarily neutral, participates in NATO’s Partnership for Peace.
Kosovo’s Ministry of Defense confirmed that all weapons purchased in the last four years meet NATO standards, mainly sourced from the U.S., Turkey, and Germany. Recently, Kosovo’s Security Force received U.S.-made RQ-20 Puma LE drones and is building its first ammunition factory in partnership with Turkey.
Meanwhile, Serbia has deepened ties with China following the war in Ukraine, purchasing drones and missile systems, and conducting joint military drills with Chinese troops. In 2024 alone, Serbia allocated $2.2 billion to defense — five times more than NATO member Albania. By comparison, Kosovo spent $162 million.
Mediu warns that such an imbalance raises a “red flag,” noting Serbia’s continued use of the “protecting Serbs” narrative — similar to Russia’s justification for invading Ukraine.
Western experts, including former NATO official Jamie Shea, argue that Serbia’s pivot toward China and Russia makes it an unreliable partner and increases regional risks. Shea suggests NATO appoint a special envoy to closely monitor developments and coordinate with the EU and the U.S.
For Kosovo, Serbia remains the main threat, as highlighted by the 2023 Banjska attack in which armed Serb groups killed a Kosovo police officer. Professors and security experts in Kosovo stress that NATO membership and deeper cooperation with the U.S. remain the ultimate security guarantees.
Mediu proposes a tri-level deterrence strategy for the region: military, political, and economic. He points to the Baltic states as a model, urging stronger joint defense capacities among NATO’s Balkan members.
Serbia, however, strongly opposes these initiatives, claiming they threaten its sovereignty.
Shea concludes with a warning rooted in military history: “You can be forgiven for losing a battle, but never for being caught unprepared.”
