It’s been two years since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This war has had repercussions in many countries around the world, in various ways.
However, since the beginning of the war by Russia, many states have felt threatened, especially those bordering Russia and Ukraine.
In addition to this, Putin has long aimed to influence the politics and security of the Balkan region, primarily through his alliance with Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić.
Considering now that the war in Ukraine has entered its third year, what might Putin’s plans be for this year?
Could we expect plans to destabilize the Balkans, considering that Putin might seek to incite a new front of war to divert attention from Ukraine?
As a result, relations between Kosovo and Serbia are tense, and security experts indicate the risk of a new conflict.
Two years ago, I warned that Kosovo would risk conflict with Serbia.
On this topic, security expert Ilir Kulla spoke in a conversation with “Bota sot.”
Firstly, he said that Russia’s war in Ukraine has had multidimensional impacts, dividing the world into two blocs.
“The reflections of the war are multidimensional, including economic, political, military, social, geopolitical, interfaith, etc. In these two years, as a result of the war, economic, energy, grain, and capital markets have experienced unprecedented crises like never before. Politically, this war has completely divided the world into two blocs, much like during the Cold War. Militarily, we have a situation unprecedented since the Cold War,” declared the expert.
Additionally, Kulla commented on the increase in global defense spending, all as a result of Russia’s war.
“Russia has annexed a territory as large as Bulgaria, NATO has expanded, global defense spending has increased by 9% and will increase more. The social drama is enormous, with tens of thousands killed on both sides and 25% of the population displaced from Ukraine. Capital markets have experienced fluctuations and often collapses leading to the decline of moderate political classes especially in the EU, replaced by populist parties and the expansion of BRICS with 40 other countries in 2024.”
Among other things, the security expert also spoke about the threat posed to Kosovo, as Serbia, influenced by Russia, continuously threatens.
“Two years ago, I warned that Kosovo would risk a conflict with Serbia. Unfortunately, this happened in September 2023. Fortunately, the conflict stopped but the threat has not passed. Cooperation with the international factor is needed to continue enhancing Kosovo’s national security, but at the same time, internal security, the economy, and the rule of law must be consolidated,” concluded Ilir Kulla for “Bota sot.”
Softa: The Kosovo-Serbia Report has become a key role in conflict resolution.
Meanwhile, another security expert, Fatjon Softa, said that the situation in the Balkans is unpredictable.
In his conversation with “Bota sot,” he expressed that the Kosovo-Serbia relationship is crucial for security in the region.
“The situation in the Balkans is unpredictable. The Kosovo-Serbia relationship has become a key role in conflict resolution, while Albania is a stabilizing and reliable partner for NATO.
I must refer to Escobar: ‘Look, he says, I don’t want to get into what all the consequences are, but, you know, I think our public statements are an indicator of how diplomatic and political relations are going. So, we’re concerned that the government of Kosovo is not treating us as a partner. They are not consulting with us. They are not working with us on regional security. And most importantly, they are doing things that seem to damage the dialogue in which the United States is fully engaged.’
Additionally, Softa said that after 2 years since the war in Ukraine, seeing what Russia and Putin are doing, we must avoid a conflict in the Balkans at all costs.
According to him, it is time for Albania and Kosovo to unite and consolidate their values, as only together can they defeat and weaken Serbia.
“After two years of war in Ukraine, the situation is still unresolved, an arena of NATO-Russia clashes, a ruined country, where alongside military clashes, there are also economic wars, this is the battlefield where losses are not only human, but have serious economic consequences for the entire globe, and this must be avoided in the Balkans, not to be a battlefield, but to be able to choose solutions and not collisions. Kosovo is small, it cannot make global politics, nor can Albania, we are small nations and we have many potential enemies, interests funded against us. We must be flexible, and more than ever, unify our values together.
It’s time to become Big Again, but without noise, to cooperate in strengthening the economy in a common market, we do not weaken Serbia and its power separately, but together, we have spent too much energy on dividing the Open Balkans, only serving Serbian interests. Serbia remains Russia’s ally, Russia in its philosophy of hegemony, attacks the weak and strategic regions and then seeks to control their governance,” he emphasized.
Furthermore, the security expert emphasized that Putin aims to initiate a conflict in the Balkans as well, a statement confirmed by Blinken.
“Russia targets the Balkans, and this is expressed by the Secretary of State: You don’t need intelligence, he says, to tell you that this is exactly what President Putin wants.
“He made it clear that he would like to rebuild the Soviet empire. In other words, he would like to restore influence around neighboring countries that were once part of the Soviet bloc. And in short, he would like to ensure that all these countries are somewhat neutral,” Blinken said.
In Ukraine, Western intelligence officials assess that Russia’s plan is to overthrow the government in Kiev and establish a pro-Russian government – but they still do not know if Putin will seek to invade and then hold Ukrainian territory.
“He aims to accomplish this in an escalated manner; hybrid warfare is his weapon,” explained Softa.
Finally, he added that Putin, with his threats, is inspiring dictators like Vučić, who are fueled by Russian money while maintaining highly dangerous mafia clans.
He also expressed that Kurti must coordinate with the international community in his efforts to build a rule of law state.
“Threats of nuclear weapon use, and the possibility of their use in space, are part of hybrid warfare and inspire dictators like Vučić, whose goal is his power and privileges, under the banner of nationalism, inspired by Russian money while maintaining highly dangerous mafia clans living and operating in Serbian territory.
Let’s not forget that Kurti’s attempt to build a rule of law state must be harmonized with the global and geopolitical interests of the US and the EU; nobody takes into account small and weightless states in the international arena, the advantages Kosovo achieved after Serbia’s failed attack in northern Kosovo and the orientation of the Kosovo government towards diplomacy with all Albanian factors in the Balkans. There is a difference between leadership and national interests; personal power interests or political interests dominate,” Fatjon Softa concluded for “Bota sot.”
Credits: BOTASOT
