Veteran British journalist and author Tim Judah, who has reported extensively on the Balkans since the 1990s, has offered his perspective on Serbia’s current political landscape, highlighting the enduring protests against President Aleksandar Vučić and the looming importance of upcoming elections.
Reflecting on decades of reporting, Judah noted that the protest movement appears cyclical, with generational echoes connecting the student-led demonstrations today to the anti-Milošević protests of the 1990s. He recalled a striking moment during his recent coverage, in which a student remarked that he was now carrying his father on his shoulders at protests, just as his father had once carried him. “It feels as if we are moving in a circle, always returning to the same issues,” Judah said, emphasizing that these movements reflect both frustration and determination across generations.
Judah argued that Vučić’s grip on power is reinforced by strategic manipulation of institutions. The president has repeatedly leveraged the police, judiciary, and media to maintain control, even signing controversial judicial laws despite promises to the European Union that he would not, signaling that judicial independence is not a priority. Serbia’s indirect provision of ammunition to Ukraine has further complicated international relations, influencing both EU and U.S. perspectives on Vučić’s governance.
Despite the persistence of protests for over fifteen months, Judah observed that demonstrators are consciously avoiding violent escalation, unlike the storming of the parliament that marked the fall of Milošević. He suggested that neither the government nor the protesters are currently seeking full confrontation, creating a tense but stable stalemate in the political sphere.
The upcoming local elections are shaping up to be a critical test of Vučić’s support, particularly in municipalities that were once considered strongholds. Judah noted that the results of these elections could influence whether parliamentary elections proceed as scheduled, as declining support in key areas may prompt the government to adjust its strategy. The student movement has emerged as a significant political actor, drawing attention and support that might otherwise flow to traditional opposition parties, thereby highlighting the fragmentation and evolving dynamics of Serbia’s political landscape.
Media freedom in Serbia remains a central concern. Recent leadership changes in public and private media outlets, including RTS and United Media, have raised questions about editorial independence and the broader role of state influence over public discourse. Judah stressed that, while traditional media may be heavily influenced by the government, citizens increasingly rely on digital platforms for independent information, underscoring the complex interplay between state control and public access to information.
In foreign policy, Judah observed that Vučić continues to balance relations with the United States, European Union, Russia, and China, using Serbia’s geopolitical position to secure strategic advantages. China’s engagement, he suggested, is primarily economic, focused on ensuring stability for investment, while U.S. policy reflects both regional security and broader transatlantic considerations. Meanwhile, the unresolved issue of Kosovo remains central, with Serbia’s domestic instability having potential implications for regional stability.
Judah also weighed in on the ongoing war in Ukraine, which he predicts will continue for the foreseeable future. He highlighted the human and economic toll, particularly on Russian forces, and the limitations of Moscow’s domestic capacity to respond to losses far from the capital. The conflict, he noted, continues to shape Serbia’s position in regional and global politics.
On transatlantic relations, Judah expressed concern over diminished trust in the United States, particularly following incidents during the Trump administration, and stressed that Europe must increasingly rely on its own mechanisms for security and stability. He warned that Serbia’s internal tensions, if left unresolved, could have both stabilizing and destabilizing effects on the broader Balkan region.
In conclusion, Judah argued that while Vučić remains firmly in control, he faces significant challenges from sustained protests and shifting public opinion. The outcome of upcoming elections will be pivotal, determining whether Serbia continues along its current trajectory or experiences meaningful political change.
