Donald Trump aims to end the war in Ukraine on his own terms, according to Timothy Less, who is not surprised by the recent moves of the former U.S. president. The agreement, he suggests, is based on a “brutally realistic assessment of the balance of power on the ground” and “Washington’s strategic objective of breaking the China-Russia axis.”
The former British diplomat believes that Trump considers Europeans irrelevant to resolving the conflict and even a potential obstacle that could jeopardize any settlement acceptable to Russia.
U.S. Accepts Border Changes if They Solve Problems
Less for an interview with Gazeta Express argues that Trump’s approach reflects a worldview that acts “based on the world as it is, not as he wishes it to be.” The latest developments in Ukraine, he asserts, demonstrate that “the U.S. is willing to accept border changes if they contribute to solving a problem.”
“This has direct relevance to the Balkans, where the logic behind Trump’s position on Ukraine leads to Kosovo’s partition as a permanent solution for its unresolved status, potentially coupled with the separation of the Presheva Valley from Serbia. This also suggests a new political settlement in Bosnia, involving either greater autonomy for Republika Srpska or its independence and unification with Serbia,” Less stated.
According to him, the sequence of events could unfold as “Ukraine first, then the Balkans.” He predicts that Trump will attempt to resolve the Kosovo-Serbia dispute while the European Union seeks to keep negotiations within the Brussels framework.
Europe’s Role in Trump’s Geopolitical Strategy
Less argues that European powers, including the UK and Germany, will likely voice strong objections, advocate their principles, and push for resolutions based on morality and law. However, in practice, he believes Europe will take limited action, leaving the U.S. to dictate the final outcome in Kosovo.
He also highlights the increasing friction between Trump and European leaders, citing Trump’s threats of military disengagement, trade tariffs, and support for right-wing insurgent parties such as Germany’s AfD. These tensions, Less suggests, have led to urgent discussions within the EU about establishing an independent European defense alliance.
Grenell’s Role in Shaping a “Partition for Recognition” Deal
Richard Grenell, Trump’s special envoy, is reportedly laying the groundwork for a solution based on “partition for recognition.” This plan would involve Serbia recognizing an independent Kosovo in exchange for territorial adjustments. Less warns that if tensions escalate in the Balkans, particularly with Bosnian Serbs pushing for greater autonomy or secession, the U.S. may shift its focus to the region, aiming to resolve both the Kosovo dispute and Republika Srpska’s status in one move.
As Trump positions himself to broker deals on his terms, the future of the Balkans remains uncertain. Whether his administration will prioritize a final settlement in Kosovo and Bosnia hinges on developments in Ukraine and the broader U.S. strategy toward Europe.
