American nuclear weapons are still stationed in Germany. However, Trump’s distancing from Europe is weakening the joint nuclear defense. Can France help?
A positive response from Berlin was long awaited by French President Emmanuel Macron. Several times, he had offered talks between Germany and France on nuclear defense based on French nuclear weapons. Until now, it had been only words in the air.
But the situation is changing: the leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, who is likely to be the next German chancellor, is ready for dialogue. With Donald Trump in the White House, it is possible that the U.S. will no longer offer nuclear protection as it has in the past. Merz wants to discuss this matter with the two nuclear powers, France and Great Britain. Paris has opened its doors.
American Bombs in Germany
For decades, Germany has been under the nuclear shield of the U.S. It is said that up to 20 atomic bombs are located in Germany, but the code for their use is only in the hands of the American president. On its side, the Bundeswehr provides fighter jets that, in case of need, would transport these bombs. NATO refers to this joint arrangement as “nuclear participation,” which includes other European countries.
Security experts do not expect that the U.S. will remove its nuclear weapons in the near future. “I don’t think it’s a near-term scenario because NATO and nuclear participation are of great strategic importance to the U.S. for various reasons,” said Sascha Hach, an expert on European security and arms control at the Peace Research Institute in Frankfurt (PRIF). “But it cannot be ruled out.” One of the strategic advantages of the U.S. is the ability to respond to Russian aggression in Europe.
Trump May Withdraw, Germany Seeks Weapons
Germany does not have the right to possess nuclear weapons.
Even if American bombs remain in Europe, the doubts sown by Donald Trump regarding the American commitment to NATO are damaging and undermining the credibility of the nuclear threat. Germany, which has always relied on the U.S., now seeks to reorient its security policy. The Bundeswehr will need to arm itself more quickly than initially planned. There is also debate about the nuclear shield: how effective is it in these circumstances against Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal of more than 5,500 warheads?
Germany itself is not allowed to have nuclear weapons. This is stipulated by the “Two Plus Four Agreement” of Germany’s reunification.
In Europe, only Great Britain and France have nuclear weapons. Within the EU, only France does. Close cooperation seems like the best path forward. But there are also limitations: British nuclear forces are tightly linked to American ones and, in the event of conflict, are placed at NATO’s disposal. The situation is different in France, which places great importance on the independence of its nuclear armed forces. They are not dependent on NATO’s joint command structures.
France reportedly possesses around 290 nuclear warheads, which can be deployed via nuclear submarines or Rafale fighter jets. French military doctrine states that these forces must protect the country’s “vital interests.” According to the French interpretation, they also strengthen European security by complicating potential adversaries’ calculations.
What Would Cooperation Look Like?
In Paris, it is said that an intensive dialogue must first take place. Information on how nuclear weapons are deployed and the strategic plans are critically important. France has decades of experience here, which Germany lacks.
What is being considered is joint training between French and German fighter aviation, says French security expert Camille Grand from the European Council on Foreign Relations. This could also involve Rafale jets being stationed in Germany. However, this does not refer to the stationing of French nuclear fighter jets or other nuclear infrastructure in Germany, as was speculated in the media.
Command Remains with the French President
France does not open for discussion the nuclear participation of its nuclear weapons as practiced by NATO. Therefore, expert Grand says, “It is wrong to think that French nuclear guarantees can replace American nuclear guarantees,” he told DW.
The French government has made it clear: The decision to use nuclear weapons will not be taken out of its hands. “Regardless of what happens, the decision has always been and will remain with the president of the Republic, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces,” said the French president in a speech to the nation in March.
What Can Europe Do?
Not only French nuclear forces, but British ones are also heavily oriented toward national defense. The UK is the only nuclear-armed country with just one type of nuclear weapon. The country’s nuclear threat is entirely based on sea defense, with four nuclear submarines stationed off the western coast of Scotland.
This limits the possibility that these weapons could soon be used for European nuclear defense. What can be considered is enhanced strategic dialogue, but also “a political declaration that the French and British nuclear devices, in case of need, should also be used to protect European territory,” emphasized expert Sascha Hach for DW. “But I do not consider it realistic that the armed forces in France and the UK would develop in such a way as to adapt to European defense.”
The Number of Bombs Doesn’t Matter
Even Friedrich Merz in Germany emphasizes that the issue is not about replacing U.S. nuclear weapons but complementing them. The U.S. is seen as irreplaceable in NATO not only because of its nuclear arsenal but also because of other special capabilities of these weapons. These include direct contacts with Russian command centers and missile warning systems, which help avoid unintended escalation. “If we are now discussing in Europe whether we can do it without the U.S., we are focusing on whether we have enough bombs,” Hach emphasizes. Here, we forget that we could lose other security mechanisms without the U.S., such as direct contacts with the adversary. “Here I would say that it is in Europe’s interest to build similar structures and mechanisms that we have control over.” /DW/
