Before the US presidential election, Iran dismissed the significance of the upcoming vote. However, with Donald Trump’s victory on November 5, experts believe it could have far-reaching consequences for the country.
During his first term, Trump increased pressure on Iran over its nuclear and missile programs, imposing sweeping sanctions on the nation.
“Iran will have to consider radical changes in its foreign policy and national security to avoid the major crises that could arise from a second Trump presidency,” said Farzan Sabet, a senior fellow at the Geneva-based IHEID.
“Maximum Pressure 2.0”
From 2017 to 2021, the Trump administration pursued a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, re-imposed economic sanctions on Iran, and ordered the killing of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.
Trump’s return to the White House could lead to a “maximum pressure 2.0” policy, according to Sabet, with the goal of “deteriorating and weakening the regime.”
Sabet believes Trump may try to create a long-term policy toward Iran that would be difficult for future administrations to undo.
The former Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, traveled to Tehran in June 2019 with a message from then-President Trump, but Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, refused to respond.
Brian Hook, who oversaw the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, is expected to lead Trump’s transition team at the State Department. US media reported that Hook may even be considered for the role of Secretary of State.
Throughout his first term, Trump sent mixed signals to Iran, threatening to destroy it while also expressing a willingness to negotiate.
Trump also said he wanted Iran to be “successful,” but added that Tehran “cannot have nuclear weapons.”
Sabet notes that since Trump’s first term, Iran has become more adept at evading US sanctions, and its nuclear program has advanced further since the US pulled out of the nuclear deal.
However, experts warn that Iran will continue to feel the effects of harsher US policies. Iran’s economy is in freefall, while its clerical establishment faces increasing internal unrest and external threats, particularly from Israel.
The Israeli Factor
In recent months, Iran and Israel have exchanged direct airstrikes, raising fears of a full regional war. The attacks occurred as Israel continues its battle against Iran-backed groups in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, believes Trump will likely give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “a free hand” to confront Iran.
Trump had a close relationship with Netanyahu, who was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Trump after his election.
During his first term, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, reversing decades of US policy. He also moved the US embassy to the contested city.
Sabet says that “security in Iran is rapidly deteriorating in the face of Israel,” particularly due to the potential involvement of the US.
The View from Iran
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on November 7 that Trump’s victory “does not make a difference” for Tehran, which “prioritizes developing relations with Islamic countries and its neighbors.”
The spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmail Baqaei, stated that Iran has had “bitter experiences with the policies and approaches of past US administrations.” However, he added that Trump’s return to the White House provides a chance to “reassess past mistakes.”
Iranian reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian pledged to engage with the West to lift sanctions before taking office in July.
Several conservative Iranian lawmakers and media openly expressed their disdain for Trump. Lawmaker Malek Shariati wrote “death to Trump” on X (formerly Twitter), before deleting the post.
The conservative newspaper Hamshahri condemned the “return of the killer,” referring to Trump’s role in the killing of Soleimani.
Others have urged Iranian policymakers to consider negotiations with Trump, especially since Pezeshkian, the reformist, pledged to engage the West when he took office.
Hamid Asefi, a political analyst based in Tehran, told Radio Farda that some critics of the clerical institution hope Trump will help bring down the Islamic Republic. But he argues that this is only wishful thinking, as Trump’s policy toward Iran has never been about regime change.
“Many politicians and analysts in Iran now believe Tehran could easily reach an agreement with Trump, since he is a businessman,” Asefi concludes.
