Military leaders from several countries are gathered this week at Turkey’s naval headquarters in Ankara to discuss Black Sea security in the event of a potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.
The meetings follow reports that Turkey is ready to take the lead in overseeing the maritime dimension of a proposed multinational security presence in Ukraine, a role deemed natural given its strategic position and military strength within NATO.
Due to the 1936 Montreux Convention, which restricts naval presence in the Black Sea, Turkey’s navy—with 17 frigates compared to Romania’s three—stands out as a key actor.
“It’s impossible to solve this without Turkey on Europe’s side,” said Sam Greene of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
UK and French vessels are expected to join rotating patrols as part of a prospective security or peacekeeping force, but a maritime mission could hinge on guarantees from the United States, especially in terms of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance support, according to CSIS.
Unlike ground-based missions, NATO already maintains a consolidated presence in the Black Sea through regular joint exercises. One such drill concluded recently, featuring naval forces from 12 nations including Turkey, the US, UK, and Romania, practicing responses to hybrid, air, and sea threats.
Key priorities for patrols would include:
- Ensuring freedom of navigation for commercial vessels
- Monitoring ceasefire compliance
- Mine clearance operations, particularly near Mikolayiv, Kherson, and Pivdennyi, where many ports remain blocked.
“Ports are officially open but limited due to mines. These need to be found and neutralized,” said Andriy Ryzhenko, a retired captain in Ukraine’s navy.
Despite the threats, Ukraine believes it has gained dominance at sea, following successful strikes that forced the larger Russian fleet to retreat from occupied Crimea to Novorossiysk.
“Ukraine has won in the Black Sea. We now have full advantage and secure civilian shipping,” said Oleksiy Neizhpapa, head of the Ukrainian Navy.
However, he warned that Russia still has the capacity to strike civilian targets and ports, as demonstrated by the April 16 attacks on Odesa.
Restoring direct sea routes, such as from Odesa to the Bosphorus, is a key goal. Ryzhenko emphasized that Black Sea navigation shouldn’t rely on detours through coastal waters of neighboring states.
While the Turkish Defense Ministry confirmed the meetings on April 13, it withheld details on participants. It has since emerged that NATO members Bulgaria and Romania, as well as Georgia, the UK, France, and Ukraine are involved.
“We’re discussing a sea-based presence and believe Turkey can play a key role in future Black Sea security guarantees,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
He clarified that the talks focus not on ending the war but on what follows a ceasefire—a future shaped by lasting maritime security structures.
As in past discussions around land deployments, the United States is not directly participating, but its indirect involvement could prove decisive.
