Belgrade, Serbia – August 3, 2025 — A growing segment of political observers and public opinion in Serbia believes that the United States—especially under a potential second Trump presidency—may intensify pressure for a formal recognition of Kosovo’s independence.
Analysts note that key elements of the existing agreements between Kosovo and Serbia, such as the Brussels Agreements and the Ohrid Annex, have already been implemented, and argue that the current Serbian leadership should not reject a future U.S.-brokered proposal. While President Aleksandar Vučić has so far balanced relations between the European Union and the United States, many believe that Washington’s engagement in the dialogue process is about to reach a new phase.
In the coming months, the Biden—or possibly Trump—administration is expected to increase its involvement in the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue. Clearer signals from Washington suggest that a comprehensive normalization agreement, potentially including mutual recognition, may be the end goal.
Zoran Vuletić, a representative of Serbia’s Civic Democratic Forum, stated:
“The Serbian public is deliberately shielded from the fact that the Brussels Agreements and the Ohrid Annex constitute de facto recognition of Kosovo. I believe the recent initiative by two U.S. congresswomen aims at achieving de jure recognition. Serbs remain the primary hostages of Belgrade’s fabricated policies.”
The discussion gained new momentum after U.S. Congress members Claudia Tenney and Chrissy Houlahan urged former President Donald Trump to take an active role in mediating a final agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, one that would result in mutual recognition.
Tenney’s involvement has sparked controversy in Belgrade, especially as she currently co-chairs the Congressional Serbian Caucus. Nationalist political factions in Serbia have called on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to clarify its position regarding the U.S. initiative.
Political analyst and legal expert Aleksandar Olenik believes the moment a U.S. proposal is officially made, it will be politically unavoidable.
“Vučić has consistently avoided conflict with Washington and has complied with its requests—especially under Trump’s presidency. If the time comes for a final agreement, he will sign it without hesitation. Ironically, a former radical might formally conclude the Kosovo dialogue.”
Experts agree that American mediation could signal a new phase of diplomatic pressure to codify the existing realities on the ground. They also anticipate renewed U.S. insistence on full implementation of the 2020 Washington Agreement, seen as a cornerstone of normalization efforts between the two countries.
