The question of whether Ukraine can immediately join NATO is gaining attention as Russia’s invasion continues to reshape the region’s security dynamics. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has proposed that the part of Ukraine not occupied by Russian forces should be allowed to join NATO as a way to seek peace talks and protect Ukrainian sovereignty. But is this feasible?
NATO’s Article 5 and Ukraine’s Protection
Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which obligates alliance members to defend one another in case of attack, forms the core of the organization’s collective defense. U.S. President Joe Biden has reiterated that the U.S. would defend “every inch” of NATO territory. Ukraine, which has long sought NATO membership, is now hoping to be covered by this protective umbrella—at least for the areas not currently under Russian occupation. However, the conflict over Russia’s annexation of Crimea and occupation of parts of eastern Ukraine complicates this prospect.
Partial NATO Membership for Ukraine?
Zelensky’s suggestion that Ukraine could be admitted to NATO while leaving out Russian-occupied territories, including Crimea and parts of Donbas, raises the question of partial NATO membership. This could potentially be done by invoking protocols within NATO’s accession documents, which have previously addressed territorial specifics. For example, NATO membership did not initially apply to certain territories, like those held by French or British overseas territories, which were not considered part of NATO.
Historically, a similar situation occurred during the Cold War when West Germany was a NATO member while East Germany was part of the Warsaw Pact. This precedent could provide a pathway for NATO to admit Ukraine while excluding certain contested territories, at least temporarily.
NATO Allies Split on Ukraine’s Membership
However, there are deep divisions among NATO members about the immediate accession of Ukraine. The United States and some European powers have expressed reservations about triggering Article 5 and entering a potential direct military conflict with Russia. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, during his visit to Ukraine, made it clear that Germany does not support Ukraine’s immediate NATO membership. Other countries like France, Poland, and the Baltic states are more open to the idea, though they too have concerns about the security implications.
NATO’s former Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also shared his thoughts on the matter, suggesting that the quick inclusion of most of Ukraine into NATO could hasten an end to the war. “Where there’s a will, there’s a way,” Stoltenberg remarked, noting that defining a clear border would be necessary for Ukraine to benefit from NATO’s protection under Article 5.
The Trump Factor: Uncertainty Ahead
Another layer of complexity is the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House. Trump’s stance on NATO and Ukraine remains uncertain. Some reports suggest that Trump may seek to delay Ukraine’s membership for up to 20 years, potentially impacting the future direction of U.S. foreign policy. The prospect of a Trump administration raises questions about how the conflict will evolve and whether NATO’s commitment to Ukraine would change.
Rutte’s Focus: More Arms, Less Debate
At a recent NATO Foreign Ministers meeting, newly appointed NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte argued that Ukraine does not need further peace process discussions but more weapons and missile defense systems to bolster its defense capabilities. Rutte emphasized that Ukraine needs the strength to negotiate with Russia from a position of power, rather than waiting for diplomatic solutions to materialize.
