This week, as Taiwan prepared for the annual military exercises “Han Kuang,” its air defense system detected a Chinese drone flying over the island. This is the sixth time since 2023 that China has sent a drone to operate around Taiwan.
Drones like the one that flew around Taiwan, which are tasked with dual missions of reconnaissance and intimidation, are just a small part of a broader trend making waves from Ukraine to the Middle East and the Taiwan Strait. This is a trend that is changing the way warfare is conducted.
The increasing role of unmanned aerial vehicles and the growing concern over a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, an independently governed island with a democratic government, are pushing Washington, Beijing, and Taipei to invest more in military drone technology.
The Hellscape Strategy
In August, the Pentagon launched the “Replicator” initiative, a $1 billion project aimed at producing thousands of aerial, naval, and ground drones, according to the Defense Department’s Innovation Unit. The Pentagon aims to build this drone force by August 2025.
The initiative is part of what US Admiral Samuel Paparo recently described in an interview with the Washington Post as the “Hellscape” strategy, which aims to counter a Chinese attack on Taiwan by deploying thousands of drones in the air and sea between the island and China.
“The benefits of unmanned systems are significant due to their low cost and the ability to produce them on a large scale. Shooting down a drone results in financial loss but not human casualties,” says Zachary Kallenborn, a policy researcher at George Mason University. “You can use them on a large scale to defeat your opponents and degrade their defensive capabilities.”
The “Hellscape” strategy, he adds, aims to use many cheap drones to deter China from attacking Taiwan.
The Drone Production Race
China has its own plans in place and is the world’s largest producer of commercial drones. At a press conference following Admiral Paparo’s comments to the Washington Post, a government spokesman in Beijing warned Washington that it was playing with fire.
“Those who loudly talk about turning others’ homelands into hell should be prepared to burn in hell themselves,” said Colonel Wu Qian, spokesman for China’s Ministry of Defense.
“The People’s Liberation Army is capable of fighting and winning in deterring foreign interference and maintaining our national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Threats and intimidation against China never work.”
China’s efforts to expand drone use have been reinforced, analysts say, citing the emphasis President Xi Jinping placed on technology and modernization in the Chinese military at a high-level party meeting last week.
“China’s military is developing more than 50 types of drones with different capabilities, amassing a fleet of tens of thousands of drones, potentially ten times larger than those of Taiwan and the United States combined,” Michael Raska, a professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, told Voice of America via email. “This quantitative advantage currently drives China’s accelerated military modernization, with drones envisioned for everything from intelligence gathering in conflicts to use in multiple attacks.”
Analysts add that China’s commercial drone dominance aids its military in improving drone technology. The Chinese company DJI dominates the home drone manufacturing and sales market, accounting for 76% of the global drone market in 2021.
The scale of production and low price of DJI drones could place China in a favorable position in a potential drone war, analysts say.
“In Russia and Ukraine, if you have many drones, even if they are simple and commercial, even DJI drones that can be bought in a store, their extensive use can create significant problems for air defense systems,” says Emilie Stewart, a research analyst at the China Aerospace Studies Institute.
China denies that it is working on using commercial drone technology for future conflicts.
“China has always been committed to maintaining global security and regional stability and has always opposed the use of civilian drones for military purposes,” Liu Pengyu, spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, told Voice of America.
“We oppose US military ties with Taiwan and Washington’s efforts to arm Taiwan.”
Drone Armies
With the help of its American partners, pressure from China, and lessons from Ukraine, Taiwan is trying to develop its own combat drone capabilities.
The United States has played a key role in developing Taiwan’s drones and just last week pledged to sell $360 million worth of attack drones to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Washington.
“Taiwan will continue to build deterrent military capabilities and work closely with its partners, including the United States, to maintain peace and stability in the region,” a spokesperson for the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Washington told Voice of America regarding Taiwan-US cooperation.
The effort to incorporate drones into its defense is crucial for Taiwan, says Eric Chan, an expert at the Global Taiwan Institute.
“The involvement of the United States in this massive drone game will give Taiwan a greater advantage in efforts to be able to first detect their enemy and second, help them build their defensive capabilities,” Chan said.
Considering the possibility of China using drones in an urban conflict environment, Taiwan has begun to understand the importance of enhancing its drone defense system.
