The pre-election campaign in the USA is also closely watched in the Western Balkans. Although the countries of the region do not expect the American foreign policy towards them to change radically whoever becomes the new occupant of the White House, each of them still has its favorites.
While in Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina, more precisely the entity of the Federation of BiH, they want the victory of the democratic candidate as a guarantor of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of these two countries, in Serbia and Republika Srpska, the overwhelming majority is in favor of Donald Trump.
In Montenegro, the picture is more colorful, although it seems that the majority is leaning towards Trump.
It is quite clear that none of the countries that are important to the Western Balkans, namely the EU members, the USA or Canada, will withdraw the recognition of Kosovo’s independence, nor will they change their fundamental positions on politics. external, a research associate at the Institute for Humanities told Radio Free Europe in Vienna, Ivan Vejvoda.
“Now the expectations in Belgrade are more realistic and more cautious, without betting on one or the other candidate, in contrast to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is fully committed to the idea that Trump will win, and how Trump hugged Orban”, emphasizes Vejvoda.
The Washington Agreement remained only on paper
During 2018, the exchange of territories between Serbia and Kosovo was at risk, as a way to normalize their relations.
Although the Trump administration has not officially endorsed the initiative, then-National Security Adviser John (John) Bolton hinted in 2018 that he might get involved “if the circumstances warrant.”
However, in the European Union, primarily in Germany, it was argued that this would cause even greater problems in the region with the risk of a chain change of borders. In the end, the Trump administration abandoned the idea.
Then, in early September 2020 – two months before the US presidential election – the Trump administration brokered the signing of an agreement to normalize economic relations between Serbia and Kosovo.
This document provided for the mutual recognition of Kosovo and Israel and the relocation of the Serbian embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
However, from this document, only the provision for mutual recognition of Kosovo and Israel has been implemented, and Serbia has not moved its embassy because, as Aleksandar Vučić said, “the interests (of Serbia) have changed since the moment when Israel recognized the independence of Kosovo”.
Other projects – such as the Nish-Pristina peace highway, the division of Lake Gazivoda – have barely begun.
The “Mini Schengen” project, later the “Open Balkans”, which was initiated by Serbia, Albania and North Macedonia, mostly died because Kosovo, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina did not join.
The Biden administration is more European
Unlike the Trump administration, which was often opposed to the European Union’s approach to the Balkans, Biden’s team tried to synchronize activities with Brussels in support of the European integration of the region, as well as the resolution of key issues, mainly in negotiations. for the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina.
In 2021, the US imposed sanctions on controversial Kosovo businessman Zvonko Veselinović and 13 other Serbs. Later, to the leader of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, because of his secessionist aspirations.
However, despite criticism from various international organizations for violating democratic norms, Biden invited representatives of Serbia to the first Summit for Democracy in 2021, although the American Embassy in Belgrade announced that it would not take place, but then there was a twist because it is sent invitations to Kosovo.
Vejvoda emphasizes that the current American administration is more European and more qualified when it comes to knowing the conditions in the Old Continent.
“From President Biden to Secretary of State (Anthony) Blinken who speaks French, then Assistant Secretary O’Brien (James O’Brien), who has been involved in Balkan affairs since Rambouillet and Dayton,” says Vejvoda.
According to him, the current American administration is committed to the goal of integrating the Western Balkans into the EU as efficiently and quickly as possible.
“This is certainly important in view of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which is why the issue of the expansion of the European Union has returned to the center of attention and has become one of the priorities of the Euro-Atlantic policy. Therefore, I think that if there remains a democratic president or president (of the USA), it will be decisive according to the code that Ukraine is the most important, and under this cap then comes enlargement – Moldova, maybe Georgia – and the Western Balkans is of course. part of these efforts”, says Vejvoda.
He clarifies that there is also the accepted acceptance at play, that “the region is as close as possible to the West”.
“We must constantly remember the geography of the Western Balkans, that is, the geopolitics and also the geoeconomics. We are surrounded by EU and NATO members. Economically, we are much more dependent on the west than the Chinese. investments, which are not negligible”, clarifies Vejvoda.
He adds that a lot will depend on the countries of the region to what extent they will wholeheartedly start the reforms.
Despite the slowness of the European integration of the Western Balkans, the idea of joining the common market is now gaining importance.
“I think it is a rational view of the EU not to have a black and white approach. There is a large area of gray colors where the influence of Russia, China, etc. should be emphasized, and there is a way for these countries to talk at the Brussels table on many topics, but they are not yet full members of the EU”, emphasizes Vejvoda. , adding that in this sense the commitment of the White House can be a great help.
The US will not allow the dissolution of Bosnia-Herzegovina
In the case of the victory of the democratic candidate, the possibility of organizing some variant of Dayton 2 next year on the 30th anniversary of the adoption of the original Dayton Agreement was mentioned, with the aim of strengthening BiH’s statehood and preventing secession. aspirations of Republika Srpska.
Vejvoda believes that there will be no change in Washington’s attitude, whoever is in power.
“And if Trump wins, secessionist intentions in Bosnia and Herzegovina will be seen very negatively in the US, because three decades were invested in its unity to ensure stability in the Balkans. Dayton is a kind of promise of American politics. I don’t do that. See that the Trump administration would change something there, on the contrary, it would have a negative attitude towards destabilization that would cause a demand for secession or a demand for an independent status of Republika Srpska”.
