If Nicolás Maduro manages to withstand the massive U.S. military buildup and the relentless political pressure from Washington, it would deliver a devastating blow to President Donald Trump’s authority. Authoritarian leaders in Beijing and Moscow — whom Trump has long tried to impress — would immediately notice the setback, writes CNN’s Stephen Collinson.
Trump’s aggressive push for regime change in Venezuela is rapidly turning into a strategic, political, and legal quagmire for the White House.
Maduro Defies Trump’s Pressure
As Trump gathered his top national security officials in the Oval Office to determine his next steps, Maduro appeared before a massive crowd in Caracas, defiantly rejecting U.S. demands to step down.
“We do not want the peace of slaves or colonies,” Maduro declared — a direct challenge as U.S. military pressure intensifies.
The Political Crisis Reaches Washington
The prolonged crisis is now erupting in Washington:
- Democrats warn that a recent U.S. strike on a suspected drug-trafficking vessel may constitute a war crime.
- Republicans — usually loyal — are expressing rare discomfort and even signaling a willingness to investigate the administration.
- Trump’s controversial Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, a political appointee with no traditional military qualifications, is becoming an increasingly dangerous liability.
The deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, along with a flotilla in Venezuelan waters, has not shaken Maduro’s grip on power.
Trump’s Credibility at Stake
Trump has threatened swift strikes on cartel-related targets in Venezuela. But Maduro has not moved.
This raises a critical risk for Trump:
If he does not follow through, his threats may start to look hollow, undermining U.S. credibility globally.
Washington’s hope was that overwhelming military pressure would force Maduro into exile or trigger a palace coup. Instead, Maduro remains unmoved.
Did Trump Miscalculate Maduro’s Resilience?
U.S. administrations have repeatedly underestimated the durability of authoritarian regimes. Maduro’s survival suggests that:
- His internal power base is stronger than believed.
- Venezuelan elites with vast financial interests have no intention of abandoning him.
If Trump escalates militarily, even limited strikes could:
- Backfire and rally Venezuelans around Maduro,
- Create chaos and unrest,
- Or drag the U.S. into yet another foreign conflict that the American public overwhelmingly opposes.
High Risk for Trump — Few Good Outcomes
A peaceful collapse of Maduro’s regime would be a massive foreign-policy victory for Trump. But if Maduro survives:
- Trump’s authority would be weakened,
- U.S. deterrence would be questioned,
- And geopolitical rivals could exploit the failure.
As Christopher Sabatini of Chatham House notes, Trump has trapped himself:
Does he escalate further — or find a face-saving way out?
The “Two-Strike” Scandal Deepens
Meanwhile, Washington is consumed by a growing scandal over a U.S. operation that allegedly struck a vessel twice — the second time possibly killing survivors who no longer posed a threat.
This raises serious concerns about violations of U.S. law and the Geneva Conventions.
Even some Republicans admit the incident may have been illegal, and lawmakers are demanding testimony from Secretary Hegseth and Admiral Mitch Bradley.
Trump Sinks Deeper Into a Crisis of His Own Making
Ultimately, responsibility lies with the Commander-in-Chief.
Trump now finds himself deeper in a self-created Venezuelan quagmire — with no easy military, political, or diplomatic exit. Each option carries enormous risks, at home and abroad.
