The authoritarian regime of Aleksandar Vučić is struggling to manage student protests that have persisted for over a month. However, the protests themselves are entering a routine that lacks tangible results. A battle of attrition continues, with neither side currently holding a decisive advantage.
The regime, after a period of apparent disarray, has regrouped and is actively attempting to discredit, divide, and exhaust the student movement. While Vučić cannot fully suppress the protests, the students, for now, lack the momentum to topple his administration, writes the Croatian daily Jutarnji List.
The Stalemate and Potential Turning Point
The current status quo has raised a critical question: can the regime’s repression, discreditation campaigns, and use of violence crush the protests?
Rumors in Belgrade suggest that Serbia’s intelligence agency (BIA) has projected that Vučić could “fall within six months” if decisive action isn’t taken. While the regime’s increased use of violence signals weakness rather than strength, history shows that rigid autocracies often collapse when they escalate state violence, as seen during the 1991 Russian coup or Ceaușescu’s crackdown in Timișoara.
For the protests to achieve success, they may need to evolve into a broader political movement. Thus far, students have resisted political articulation, fearing exploitation. This reluctance, however, weakens their impact and benefits the regime, which thrives on the lack of cohesive opposition.
Underlying Frustrations and Broader Context
While the protests were triggered by the tragic collapse of a Novi Sad bus shelter that claimed 15 lives, they reflect broader dissatisfaction with Vučić’s 12 years of authoritarian, corrupt, and party-dominated rule. Public intellectuals and figures associated with the initiative ProGlas have called for societal solidarity, urging citizens to stand with students. Prominent writer Gojko Božović stated, “Society can no longer endure this government” and called for unequivocal opposition to the regime.
Despite these calls, the protests lack clear political demands or strategies, particularly on critical issues such as Kosovo, Montenegro, Republika Srpska, Euro-Atlantic integration, and relations with Russia and China. Without a unified platform, the protests risk stagnation.
Vučić’s Counteroffensive
Vučić has sought to politicize the protests, framing them as an opposition-led ploy to seize power without elections. He has labeled opposition members “losers and idlers,” while slandering academics and public figures supporting the protests as “pedophiles” and “separatists.”
In response to mounting pressure, Vučić has announced the formation of yet another national movement to rally his supporters. Additionally, he has floated the idea of a referendum on his presidency, a populist maneuver not recognized under Serbia’s constitution.
A Battle of Narratives
The regime has doubled down on propaganda, using loyal media outlets like Informer, Happy TV, and Pink TV to smear protesters. These outlets amplify incidents of violence, often staged by pro-regime provocateurs, to delegitimize the movement.
At the same time, Vučić has introduced bizarre claims that Croatian operatives are behind the student unrest. This narrative, though absurd, could resonate with segments of Serbian society, highlighting the regime’s paranoia and frustration.
Challenges for the Opposition
The opposition remains largely reactive, lacking concrete initiatives or a unified vision. Goran Ješić, a prominent opposition figure, has proposed the formation of a non-political government, but such an arrangement would require unprecedented cross-party support.
While tensions escalate, the timing and scale of any potential climax remain uncertain. Both the regime and the protesters face a critical question: will the current impasse lead to transformative change or fade into another failed movement?
