Steve Witkoff, the envoy of U.S. President Donald Trump, is in Moscow on Tuesday for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin about a potential agreement to end the war in Ukraine.
A leaked version of the U.S. peace proposals was published last week, but European powers issued counterproposals, and American and Ukrainian officials have since held talks in Geneva and Florida, without providing details about their discussions.
So, what might a peace deal actually look like?
Who Gets Which Territory?
Russia, which launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, currently controls around 116,000 square kilometers, or more than 19% of Ukrainian territory, according to the Russian military.
This is only about one percentage point more than two years ago, but Russian forces have advanced in 2025 at their fastest pace since 2022, according to pro-Ukrainian maps—though Kyiv says the human cost for Russia has been enormous.
Moscow, meanwhile, claims that Ukraine has also suffered heavy losses.
Russia insists that Crimea—annexed in 2014—along with the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (collectively known as Donbas), and the regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, are now legally part of the Russian Federation. The United Nations has declared these annexations illegal under international law and they remain unrecognized by most of the international community.
Russia also holds parts of other Ukrainian regions—such as Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk—but has still not achieved its objective of fully controlling the Donbas.
According to the initial 28-point U.S. proposal, Ukraine would be required to withdraw from heavily fortified areas of Donbas it still holds—around 5,000 square kilometers. This territory would become a demilitarized neutral zone that the international community would recognize as de facto Russian.
The proposal would also recognize Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk as de facto Russian, including by the United States. Russian gains in parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson up to the current front lines would also receive de facto recognition.
European powers, however, submitted a counterproposal, arguing the American draft was overly favorable to Moscow. Their version would require Ukraine to commit not to retake Russian-held territories by force.
A further set of proposals was later discussed by U.S. and Ukrainian officials, and President Volodymyr Zelensky said the talks in Florida had “refined” a framework peace agreement first developed in Geneva.
Zelensky has acknowledged that some Russian-occupied territories might be recognized de facto as temporarily occupied, but has ruled out any de jure recognition. He insists he cannot legally surrender territory and has urged Western allies not to reward Russia’s war of aggression.
What Happens With NATO?
One of Putin’s core conditions for ending the war is a written commitment from Western leaders that NATO—the U.S.-led military alliance—will halt its eastward expansion. Russian officials frequently cite assurances they claim were made by U.S. Secretary of State James Baker to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990.
How Would Security Guarantees Work?
Ukraine says it needs a strong, credible security guarantee to prevent future Russian aggression. Russia wants restrictions on the size of Ukraine’s armed forces and insists that Ukraine must remain neutral.
The United States has been cautious about any security guarantee that could lock the West into a future NATO-Russia conflict over Ukraine.
Ukraine and its European partners argue that Moscow is not a trustworthy guarantor and that forcing neutrality on Ukraine would leave Europe exposed to future aggression. Russia, on the other hand, insists that neither Ukraine nor Europe can be trusted.
Moscow has also demanded protections for Russian speakers and Orthodox believers. Kyiv rejects any limits on its armed forces and argues that Russian speakers in Ukraine already enjoy full rights—pointing out that Zelensky’s first language is Russian, which he uses frequently.
What Happens to Frozen Russian Assets and Money?
The initial U.S. proposals state that Russia—now under heavy Western sanctions—would be reintegrated into the global economy and invited back into the G8 (the group of the world’s major economies), from which it was suspended in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea.
The U.S. draft also suggests long-term agreements with Russia on cooperation in energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, Arctic rare-metal extraction, and other mutually beneficial opportunities for corporations.
Meanwhile, EU leaders are seeking a plan to use frozen Russian assets held in Europe as collateral for a €140 billion loan for Ukraine. Russian officials have warned that such a move would be illegal.
What About Nuclear Issues, Elections, and Business?
Peace steps could include Russia and the United States agreeing to resume talks on strategic nuclear arms control.
The future of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, located in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, remains uncertain.
There has also been media speculation that Russia could offer American companies stakes in its vast natural resources sector.
Washington has floated the idea of holding elections in Ukraine. Putin has argued that Kyiv’s leadership lost legitimacy by refusing to hold elections after Zelensky’s term expired. Ukraine insists elections cannot take place during a full-scale war while the country is defending itself against Russian occupation.
