When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, he was confident that Russian forces would overthrow the Ukrainian government within weeks, and that Moscow would regain full control of the country after 30 years of independence.
Putin was wrong, and the war he initiated is now entering its third year. It’s hard to imagine that Putin didn’t consider the possibility of such a miscalculation when opposition forces, led by rebels, took Damascus and overthrew Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power just about two weeks after launching their offensive.
The Kremlin’s focus on its war in Ukraine is one of the main reasons the Syrian rebel offensive was so successful and swift.
While Russian warplanes increased bombing of rebel-held territories during their offensive, Moscow did not make significant efforts to stop the rebel advance, as its military capabilities in Syria were limited and its eyes were fixed on Ukraine.
Now that Assad has been overthrown, what impact will Russia’s major failure in the Middle East have on its war in Ukraine?
Analysts say the impact on the battlefield will not be major, although it will largely depend on the fate of Russian forces and bases in Syria: the airbase in Hmeimim and the naval base in Tartus.
“A partial or complete withdrawal would free up some intelligence resources, such as air force, special forces, and intelligence… but Russia is likely to have only a few thousand troops in Syria,” said Dara Massicot, a military analyst and researcher at the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, speaking to Radio Free Europe (RFE).
Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Counter-Disinformation Center at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said on Telegram that by the summer of 2024, “Russia had around 6,000-7,000 military personnel in Syria,” including members of private military companies linked to the Russian state.
“Even if all these soldiers were transferred back to the Russian Federation and then sent to fight in Ukraine, it would not significantly affect the frontlines, given the high daily losses the Russian army has been suffering during its offensive operations,” Kovalenko wrote.
The Russian army has sustained heavy losses in recent months, especially in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas, as it prepares for potential peace efforts by the newly elected U.S. president, Donald Trump, when he assumes office in January.
Analysts highlighted that if Russian ships based in Tartus were to leave the Mediterranean, they would not be able to enter the Black Sea because Turkey has restricted passage through the Bosporus Strait.
The departure of Russian warplanes from Syria would have more significance, as “it could strengthen the aviation group fighting against Ukraine,” said military analyst Mykhaylo Samus, based in Kyiv, speaking to RFE’s Ukrainian Service.
“So, it is the aviation component that could play a negative role [for Ukraine],” he said.
Ivan Kyrychevskiy, an analyst at the Defense Express consulting company based in Kyiv, had a different opinion, saying that “by manipulating its resources in Syria, Russia will have no impact on Ukraine in any way,” and at this time “we cannot say that the Russians are leaving [Syria] and that’s all.”
“I think Russia would be willing to offer a lot to the new coalition in Syria to maintain some kind of presence there as a top priority,” Massicot told RFE, adding, “Russia will try to consolidate agreements in Libya and Sudan as partial compensation.”
Some experts suggested that the blow to Russia’s reputation in Syria could increase Putin’s hunger for control over Ukraine.
“Assad’s fall has… shaken Putin, making him less inclined to show flexibility towards Ukraine,” wrote Tatyana Stanovaya, a researcher at the Center for Eurasian Studies at Carnegie, on X on December 8.
“The war in Ukraine, to some extent, has cost him Syria, which strengthens his unwillingness to make compromises,” she added.
Ruth Deyermond, a lecturer at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, stated that events in Syria do not seem likely to impact Russia’s determination to prevail in Ukraine.
Massicot said that it will depend on how large a presence Russia will manage to maintain in Syria and the surrounding region.
“If Russia is completely expelled from Syria and cannot have military bases elsewhere in the region, such a severe blow to Russian power is likely to make Putin more harsh and determined to show control and ‘success’ in Ukraine,” she said.
At the same time, Ukrainian commentators noted that the fall of a regime that had stood as a symbol of Russia’s newly acquired power on the international stage might prompt people and leaders from the West, to Africa, and even China, to see Moscow as weaker and more vulnerable than it appeared when Assad’s invulnerable power had lasted almost a decade after Russia’s military intervention in Syria in 2015.
“The myth that Russia is large, invincible, and so on – it’s just propaganda. And I think this became clear once again in many capitals and will affect all subsequent events,” said Volodymyr Ohryzko, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister (2007-2009), who is now head of a center for Russian studies, speaking to RFE’s Ukrainian Service.
“For us, I think this is a positive moment in our work with Western partners. And we should take advantage of this moment,” Ohryzko said.
“We can use this in Ukraine, to show that even nuclear powers can lose. The Soviet Union lost in Afghanistan, the United States essentially lost in Vietnam,” said Ukrainian political analyst Oleksandr Khara, speaking to RFE’s Ukrainian Service.
He added that this could help convince Ukraine’s supporters “that we can win in Ukraine, if they help us with the necessary weapons and other things.”
“We’ve seen in the past that the West has been willing to offer additional support for Ukraine when it has achieved military successes against Russia. The Kremlin’s inability to take significant steps to prevent this geopolitical humiliation [in Syria] shows how overwhelmed they are in Ukraine,” wrote Deyermond. “This, along with Putin’s failure of recent nuclear threats, should encourage NATO members to support Ukraine.” /RFE/
