In recent weeks, European states — mainly France, Germany, and the United Kingdom — have been trying to get involved in discussions between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia.
There have been several successful high-level meetings, one in Paris on April 17 and another in London six days later, though the latter was politically downplayed after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff canceled their participation.
Their absence reportedly stemmed from Ukraine’s reluctance to agree to a peace plan that would include recognizing Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea.
On April 26, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of Pope Francis’ funeral at the Vatican. However, no outcomes from this meeting have been reported.
What is Europe doing regarding the Ukraine-Russia peace talks?
The first priority is to keep the U.S. engaged in the process and to ensure ongoing communication with the Ukrainians. How successful this will be remains unclear, especially as Washington has threatened to walk away from the talks if progress is not made swiftly.
Officials who spoke to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) believe this could be a negotiation tactic aimed at pressuring Ukraine, noting that President Trump often adopts a tough public stance only to later return to the negotiating table — as demonstrated by his approach to trade tariffs.
Europeans are aiming for what they call “sequencing”: first securing a ceasefire that both sides would honor, followed by efforts toward achieving a sustainable peace.
They believe this approach would better safeguard Ukraine’s security interests and prevent the outcome from being dictated solely by Moscow. There is also hope that Ukraine’s expressed willingness last month to abide by a ceasefire — contrasted with Russia’s refusal — shows Kyiv’s good faith, unlike Moscow.
This would also allow Europeans time to organize a “security force” in western Ukraine, ideally with at least some political backing from the United States, although U.S. military participation appears unlikely, according to European diplomats who spoke to RFE/RL.
The current idea focuses less on “boots on the ground” and more on aerial patrols aimed at securing Lviv airport and surrounding areas, which serve as a major transport hub for Ukraine.
Europeans are also committed to continuing military aid to Ukraine.
Although fully compensating for the gap left by the U.S. might not be feasible, there is hope that European funding will continue and that Germany’s incoming government (expected to form in early May) will be more open — particularly regarding approval of long-awaited cruise missile deliveries (Taurus missiles) to Ukraine.
What about U.S. calls for recognizing Crimea as Russian?
Regarding certain American demands tied to a possible peace proposal, Europeans are firm:
There will be no de jure recognition of Crimea as part of Russia — unless Ukraine itself agrees to it. De facto recognition of territories currently controlled by Russia is a different matter. Similarly, shelving Ukraine’s NATO membership aspirations is something Europe might be able to accept.
Several European states previously hid behind the U.S. when, under former President Joe Biden’s administration, the possibility of inviting Ukraine into NATO was dismissed — both at the 2023 Vilnius Summit and a year later in Washington.
However, Ukraine’s eventual EU membership is viewed differently. Brussels and all allied European capitals are convinced that Moscow has no say in this decision.
According to diplomats familiar with the U.S. peace proposal, Russia accepts that Ukraine could join the European bloc. A “Cyprus-like” scenario — where all of Ukraine is legally seen as part of the EU, but only the parts under Kyiv’s control are practically included — seems the likely outcome.
One issue that seems to have dropped off the agenda — to Europe’s relief — is the demand for new elections in Ukraine. Diplomats told RFE/RL that while early elections were initially floated as a potential condition, the idea has quietly been shelved. Still, RFE/RL has learned that Russia might push this demand later on.
Could Europe ease sanctions on Russia?
Then there’s the question of sanctions.
While the U.S. has offered Russia the possibility of sanctions relief, European states do not support this. Lifting EU sanctions would require unanimity, and such consensus currently does not exist.
In fact, diplomats told RFE/RL that Paris and Berlin are looking to increase pressure on Russia and are planning even harsher measures in the coming weeks.
The 17th package of sanctions against the Kremlin is already in preparation, following deadly Russian attacks on Sumy and Kryvyi Rih earlier in April. Brussels is now fast-tracking the drafting of this package.
The EU is also finalizing asset freezes and travel bans on 15 Russians accused of carrying out hybrid attacks within the EU — part of a separate sanctions package.
As with all matters concerning Russia, European officials acknowledge that getting Hungary’s approval will be difficult, meaning the new sanctions package may ultimately be more symbolic than impactful.
They also need Budapest’s consent to renew broader sectoral sanctions against Russia in July. There are growing concerns that Hungary might block this renewal, and other member states might also start opposing certain measures prompting an urgent search for alternative ways to maintain sanctions pressure.
One critical priority for most EU states is preserving the roughly €200 billion in frozen Russian assets. This not only serves as leverage against Moscow but is also vital for funding Ukraine’s reconstruction.
The unexpected profits from these frozen assets are currently helping to finance Ukraine’s military needs, and a €45 billion G7-backed loan that supports Ukraine’s macrofinancial needs for 2025 is secured against these assets. Therefore, Europe is keen to maintain at least some sanctions on Russia moving forward.
