During their clash in the Oval Office, U.S. President Donald Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, “You currently don’t have the cards.”
Trump’s statements from last month referred to the perceived weak position of Kyiv in light of Russia’s battlefield advances and a White House eager to end the three-year war.
Now, as Zelensky visits Saudi Arabia – where a Ukrainian negotiating team will hold high-level talks with U.S. officials on March 11 regarding a potential peace deal – Kyiv’s cards will be fully revealed.
“Ukraine has the weakest cards on the table,” said Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. “As Trump and his envoys have made clear, Washington is not inclined to endlessly support Kyiv.”
Since the clash in the White House at the end of February, Washington has increased pressure on Ukraine, suspending military aid and intelligence sharing. Additionally, a key minerals agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine remains unsigned.
Trump has expressed optimism for the talks, telling reporters, “I believe we will make significant progress this week.” Before traveling to Saudi Arabia, Zelensky said, “We will continue to work for peace.”
“Now comes the time for a new round of bets,” said Froman. “What is Ukraine’s red line with the U.S. and Russia? What American concessions is Trump willing to make, not just to reach any agreement, but one that creates a fair and lasting peace?”
Who Will Participate in the Talks?
The one-day talks in Saudi Arabia will be the first between Ukrainian and American officials since Zelensky’s tense visit to the White House.
They will also take place a month after American and Russian officials met in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, about ending the war in Ukraine – without Kyiv’s presence.
During his visit on March 10, Ukrainian President Zelensky will meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
The Ukrainian negotiating team will stay in the country to meet with American counterparts the following day. Kyiv’s delegation will include Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s chief of staff, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha, and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.
The US-Ukraine talks will be held in the city of Jeddah. The American negotiating team will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with National Security Advisor Mike Waltz also participating.
Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, who attended the talks in Riyadh, was expected to join the talks. However, reports now suggest that he may travel to Qatar for discussions on the fragile ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian group designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the EU.
What Does the U.S. Want from Ukraine in These Talks?
Trump has said that Ukraine’s human resources and capabilities are running out, and it must quickly come to the negotiating table with Russia.
The focus of the talks in Jeddah will be an assessment by American and Ukrainian officials of what kind of peace process is possible.
Witkoff said last week that he hopes to discuss a “framework” for a potential ceasefire and peace deal.
American officials will also look at where Kyiv is willing to compromise. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Kyiv has called for the return of all its territory and the complete withdrawal of Russian forces.
Trump’s and other American officials’ statements have suggested that this stance is not seen as realistic in the White House.
The sequencing of steps in the peace process to reach a deal may also be part of the talks, including issues such as an early ceasefire to build trust, prisoner exchanges, and potentially, at a later stage, holding elections in Ukraine.
Before the talks, Serhiy Leshchenko, an advisor to the head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, told reporters that Kyiv is preparing to accept a partial ceasefire that would cover air and sea strikes.
“Do you want a ceasefire? We are ready,” he said on March 10. “However, in the field, where [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will be able to accept a ceasefire for a few months: to treat the wounded, recruit infantry from North Korea, and restart this war.”
In exchange for concessions from Ukraine, the Trump administration is looking to resume military aid and intelligence sharing.
On March 9, Trump said the U.S. “has almost completed” the suspension of intelligence sharing with Ukraine, suggesting that the intelligence sharing could resume and would be a positive outcome from the talks in Saudi Arabia.
Does Ukraine Have Any Leverage in These Talks?
Zelensky has faced significant pressure from the U.S. to make concessions before any peace talks and has requested strong security guarantees for Kyiv, which so far have not been accepted.
Additionally, the fate of the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal looms over the meeting in Jeddah. Kyiv wants to include a clear security guarantee from the U.S. in exchange for access to certain mineral resources in Ukraine, a request that has been rejected by Washington.
The deal was suspended during Zelensky’s visit to Washington, but both sides have expressed willingness to sign it. Before the upcoming talks, Trump said he believes Ukraine will sign the agreement.
In a recent interview, U.S. special envoy Keith Kellogg suggested that this could be Kyiv’s best option.
“If the U.S. has a direct economic interest in Ukraine, then the U.S. also has a direct interest in protecting its economic interests – which, de facto, serves as a security guarantee for Ukraine,” he said.
What About Russia?
This time, Russia will not be at the negotiating table in Saudi Arabia, but what Moscow is willing to concede – if anything – is also a question hanging over the U.S.-Ukraine meeting.
Zelensky has said that Putin does not want peace and has emphasized that the Russian leader has violated previous ceasefire agreements.
Ukraine’s European allies have argued that Kyiv can only reach an agreement with Russia from a position of strength and should not be rushed into negotiations.
Despite these factors, former National Security Council Director for Russia, Thomas Graham, who served during President George W. Bush’s administration and still maintains contacts with officials in Moscow, said that “the Kremlin has not abandoned its maximalist demands for ending the conflict.”
Moscow continues to demand that Ukraine remain outside NATO, insists on recognition of the Ukrainian territories it has occupied, calls for Ukraine’s disarmament, and the lifting of Western sanctions on the Russian economy.
“The Kremlin welcomes further steps that weaken Ukraine’s position, such as the U.S. decision to suspend arms shipments to Ukraine, which a Kremlin spokesman called ‘the best contribution to the cause of peace,’” said Graham.
