Kosovo is approaching the middle of March, when the long process of counting and certifying the results of the February 9 parliamentary elections is expected to conclude. Following that, the challenge of forming a new government will begin.
According to political experts, there has been no more unpredictable situation in Kosovo in recent years. No party has achieved a clear victory to form a government alone, and forming coalitions this time seems more complicated than ever.
What procedures lie ahead?
President Vjosa Osmani is required to call the first meeting of the Kosovo Assembly, which must occur no later than 30 days after the official certification of election results by the Central Election Commission (CEC). This meeting is considered concluded only once the Speaker and Deputy Speakers of the Assembly are elected.
Based on preliminary results, the role of Speaker will go to the Self-Determination Movement (LVV), which received the most votes. However, if the party fails to propose a candidate for Speaker, the process will stall.
Eugen Cakolli from the Kosovo Democratic Institute reminds us that such a situation is not unprecedented:
“In 2014, the process of forming institutions dragged on for six months due to the lack of a clear deadline or constitutional requirement for the winning party to propose a candidate for Speaker,” Cakolli explained. If no ruling from the Constitutional Court is issued, the process could be delayed until next year, which would coincide with the expiration of the President’s term, potentially triggering early elections.
In 2014, the impasse was resolved when the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) abandoned the opposition bloc and formed a government coalition with the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK).
Why might LVV cause a blockage?
The current government party, led by Prime Minister Albin Kurti, could delay the process if it fails to secure a stable coalition to complete the formation of institutions.
However, once the Speaker is elected, the clock will start ticking for subsequent steps.
The President is then obligated to nominate the winning party as the mandate holder to form the government. Although there is no fixed deadline for this, existing rules stipulate that the process should proceed “as soon as possible.”
“I expect that as soon as the President nominates the candidate proposed by LVV, they will be required to present the composition of the government within 15 days,” Cakolli clarified.
The proposed cabinet must secure the votes of 61 deputies within this timeframe. If this doesn’t happen, the President is obligated to call another round of consultations with the political parties and decide on a new mandate holder, at her discretion, based on whether they can form a majority.
The new mandate holder will then have another 15 days to present the cabinet to the Assembly. If a government is still not formed after 40 days, the President must issue a decree for new elections, which must be held 40 days from the decree.
What is the most likely scenario?
According to Cakolli, none of the parties seem to be in a hurry or eager to form institutions:
“LVV may find it extremely difficult to find partners among the Albanian parties, and based on the current results, it does not have a partner for a coalition. It cannot form a government solely with non-Serb minority parties. I believe LVV will face significant challenges, and as a result, may try to block the formation of institutions by not nominating a candidate for Speaker.”
Opposition parties could face a different challenge if the Speaker issue is resolved. “They would then face the president’s election, which will likely occur in March or April of next year, and LVV, with its 47 deputies, might block the election of the President, leading to early elections,” Cakolli assessed.
Political parties might be reluctant to act due to the complexity of securing votes and the external pressure that could weigh on the new government.
Who could form a more stable government?
Cakolli believes that the 2021 elections proved that even a government with 68 deputies was insufficient for efficiently passing laws. “For a more solid scenario, a coalition between LVV and the Albanian parties is needed,” he said, adding that a union between LVV and PDK seems likely, especially considering the votes needed for the future presidential position.
Various scenarios are being discussed both within and outside of political circles, and more calculations are reportedly underway.
Time will tell who had the right approach…
