The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published two possible scenarios for Ukraine’s economy, forecasting the end of the war either by the end of 2025 or mid-2026.
In the baseline scenario, the war is expected to end by the end of 2025, which would ease the country’s economic recovery. According to this scenario, Ukraine’s GDP could grow by 4% in 2024, while inflation is forecast to reach 10%, influenced by high food prices and the weakening of the national currency, the hryvnia. In 2025, economic growth is projected to be between 2.5% and 3.5%, driven by improvements in energy capacity and reduced price pressures.
The negative scenario involves a prolonged conflict lasting until mid-2026, which would have more severe consequences for the country’s economy. This scenario predicts a slower recovery, high inflation, and a fiscal deficit exceeding 20% by 2026.
On December 21, the IMF concluded its sixth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program for Ukraine, approving an additional $1.1 billion in aid for Kyiv to support its economy during this challenging period.
