Friedrich Merz seems almost certain to become Germany’s next chancellor, as his conservative CDU/CSU alliance won the majority of votes in the crucial federal elections on Sunday.
While the domestic political and economic landscape remains challenging, some of Merz’s most urgent issues could come from outside Germany. The man who was once praised for claiming he could simplify the lives of millions by reducing tax bureaucracy now faces a much more complex reality.
Merz, an avid aviator and father of three (whose wife once prohibited him from buying a private plane until their children had left home—he is now reported to own two), will want to leave his mark right from the start. Here’s a brief overview of the key issues he will need to address.
Relations with the United States
Initially presenting himself during the electoral campaign as a determined businessman who could negotiate directly with Donald Trump, Merz was forced to change his stance within hours after the American president altered his narrative on Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine.
The once-optimistic Atlanticist received his first dose of realpolitik even before winning the top position. This seems to have turned him into a somber realist, and his rhetoric quickly shifted.
Merz did not hide his shock after Trump’s statements blaming Ukraine for the war. He called it “a classic reversal of the victim-aggressor narrative.”
“This is how Putin has presented it for years, and honestly, I am somewhat shocked that Donald Trump now seems to have adopted this view,” he said, referring to Trump as “an admirer of autocratic systems.”
However, according to Merz, getting emotional wouldn’t take Europe anywhere. “The only thing we can do, if we have another idea of democracy, is to unite Europe as quickly as possible.”
Nevertheless, the challenge is immense—the immediate rupture in relations between Washington and Berlin, which Merz described unequivocally as an “epochal split,” is likely to become a defining element of his chancellorship.
As the leader of Europe’s largest economy, how he handles this crisis will be crucial in determining the continent’s stance toward the emerging new world order.
Germany’s Economy Needs a Restart
Germany’s largest economy needs a reboot. Several challenges exist, from mismanagement and outdated infrastructure to high energy costs, chronic labor shortages, and an aging population. According to many Germans, there is an urgent need for investment in everything from national defense to infrastructure.
However, to achieve this, Merz may need to ease a constitutional rule known as the “debt brake,” which has been used by Berlin for years to maintain its status as a model of fiscal discipline.
Under this rule—introduced in 2009 by Angela Merkel to show Germany’s commitment to a balanced budget after the financial crisis—the federal government must limit annual borrowing to 0.35% of GDP.
Merz could relax this rule and free up the necessary funds for investment in various sectors, from housing to railway infrastructure, a step supported by more than half of Germans.
But this would not pass without controversy: in fact, a clash over the “debt brake” ultimately led to the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s government. Wait and see.
Ukraine
Ukraine is already a sensitive issue in Germany. The population is divided between those who believe supporting Kyiv brings the threat of war closer to Germany—an argument most strongly advocated by the “left-conservative” movement led by Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW)—and those who believe that not supporting Ukraine and showing weakness to Vladimir Putin is even more dangerous.
Merz undoubtedly belongs to the latter camp. He warned Scholz against a “conciliatory policy” with Russia and even visited Kyiv before the then-chancellor.
Germany is the second-largest military aid supplier to Ukraine, and Merz has strongly supported this, stating he would like to go further by providing Ukraine with long-range Taurus cruise missiles.
The Far Right
A key question is who Merz will seek to form a governing coalition with and whether he will continue to exclude a coalition with the AfD (Alternative for Germany).
He has repeatedly stated that a CDU-AfD coalition is not on the table.
However, many fear that an unstable and fractured coalition might lead to a political deadlock similar to that which characterized the previous “traffic light” government.
Relationship with Merkel
Merz was overshadowed by the former chancellor when he tried to ascend to the CDU’s leadership in the early 2000s, and the two have never had a good relationship.
In her memoirs, Merkel said she had no problem with her old rival becoming chancellor but described him as a man with “an unreserved desire for power.”
One thing is for certain: Merkel’s assessment of Merz’s leadership will be of great interest to the German public.
This analysis is from The Guardian, translated and adapted by Nacionale.
