March 13, 2025 – For the first time since President Donald Trump began his second term in January and initiated efforts to end Russia’s war against Ukraine, it is Moscow – not Kyiv – that faces increased pressure from the United States to demonstrate its commitment to achieving peace.
On March 12, U.S. officials headed to Moscow, as Trump announced, after Ukraine agreed to the American plan for an immediate 30-day ceasefire, which could be extended. The agreement was made during a meeting on March 11 in Saudi Arabia between American and Ukrainian officials.
On March 13, U.S. officials arrived in Russia for talks. However, will Russia accept the proposal?
Three Possible Outcomes:
- Flat Rejection
If Russia’s actions align with its public statements, a rejection is the most likely scenario. Russian President Vladimir Putin and other officials have consistently stated that Moscow seeks not just a ceasefire, but a comprehensive peace agreement that addresses what it claims to be the “root causes” of the war.
Putin launched the full-scale invasion in February 2022 with the aim of subjugating Ukraine, but these statements suggest that Russia might not be prepared to halt fighting until it secures an agreement that fulfills Kremlin demands. Moscow, among other things, seeks Ukraine’s neutrality, the shrinking of Ukraine’s military, and a change in Kyiv’s government, or at least a clear pathway to the removal of President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Additionally, Russia wants a deal that extends beyond Ukraine, aiming to reduce NATO’s influence in Eastern Europe and increase Moscow’s sway over continent-wide security decisions – objectives that go far beyond a temporary ceasefire.
With Russian forces advancing slowly but steadily in eastern Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces retreating in the Kursk region of Russia, Putin may see no reason to halt the fighting now.
- Unconditional Acceptance
Considering the factors at play, an unconditional acceptance of the ceasefire proposal by Russia seems highly unlikely. If Moscow were to entertain accepting a temporary ceasefire, it would likely want to stamp its approval on the agreement. - Acceptance with Conditions
While unconditional acceptance seems ruled out, Russia may conclude that a ceasefire is in its best interests. According to Sam Greene, a professor at the King’s Russia Institute, Putin may view a ceasefire as a strategic move to advance his goals. Moscow’s primary objective is domination over Ukraine. In the absence of an ability to achieve this militarily, Russia could be satisfied – temporarily or otherwise – with exercising control through the threat of renewed aggression.
Putin might also calculate that accepting a ceasefire could help reduce Western sanctions against Russia and avoid Trump adopting a much harsher stance.
Russian officials have yet to indicate interest in a ceasefire, with many signs suggesting they are not. Although this could be a strategic bluff, Moscow is likely attempting to stir concerns in Washington about both the speed and terms of the agreement.
The outcome remains uncertain, and Moscow’s decision could have major implications for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
