A new report from the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, released today, warns that cities across Europe and Central Asia (ECA) face a significant and sustained increase in temperatures. This trend is projected to triple tens of thousands of existing heat-related deaths and reduce annual GDP by approximately 2.5 percent by 2050.
The report, titled “Uninhabitable: How Cities in Europe and Central Asia Can Survive and Thrive in a Hotter Future,” states that the number of hot days in the region’s major cities—where over 70% of the population resides—could triple by 2050. Many cities are likely to experience 40-70 additional hot days per year, with Southern Europe and Turkey being particularly affected.
Urban Vulnerabilities and Economic Impacts
The report highlights that dense construction, limited vegetation, and heat-trapping surfaces contribute to an “urban heat island effect,” making cities especially vulnerable to rising temperatures. “Extreme heat events send thousands of people to emergency rooms, overwhelming hospitals and worsening chronic diseases, especially for the elderly and people living in low-income communities,” the report notes.
Beyond health impacts, extreme heat can also disrupt and deplete transportation systems, strain energy grids, intensify droughts, increase wildfire risks, and worsen air quality. Economically, it slows down workers, reduces working hours, and lowers production, particularly in outdoor sectors like construction, transport, and tourism. Furthermore, a large portion of the region’s infrastructure and housing stock, especially in Central Asia and parts of Eastern Europe, was built in the mid-20th century and is overdue for renovation.
Pathways for Action
“As temperatures continue to rise and heatwaves become more common, cities across the region are becoming increasingly uninhabitable, especially for the elderly, children, and low-income populations,” said Sameh Wahba, World Bank Regional Director for Europe and Central Asia. “But cities also hold the keys to action, such as investments in tree planting for greater coverage and equipping schools, hospitals, and housing stock with passive cooling.”
The report suggests additional steps cities can take immediately to minimize negative impacts from rising temperatures, including developing early warning systems and responsive public health services, providing cooling centers where most needed, using heat-tolerant materials, and integrating extreme weather into infrastructure planning.
Success, the report adds, depends on enabling local action within a broader, well-coordinated system. “Cities and mayors are taking the lead in designing, financing, and implementing heat resilience measures, but they need clear mandates, sustainable financing, and strong coordination with national authorities to succeed,” said Megha Mukim, Senior Urban Economist at the World Bank. “Action now can help save lives and strengthen prosperity in the cities of the Europe and Central Asia region for decades to come.”
