Nearly half of German citizens expect Chancellor Friedrich Merz to leave office by the end of the year, according to a new YouGov poll.
The survey found that 48% of respondents do not believe Merz will still be chancellor in December, while 31% expect him to remain in office. Another 21% said they were undecided or did not provide an answer.
A total of 1,611 people participated in the poll.
The findings were published ahead of Sunday’s state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) faces potential setbacks.
Pressure on the chancellor has increased following the CDU’s performance in Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) received 43.8% of the vote, while the CDU won 17.2%.
The result has fueled discussion over whether Merz could face pressure to leave office.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, recent polls have placed the CDU at around 6%, only slightly above the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament. If confirmed, such a result would represent the CDU’s weakest performance in a German state since the end of World War II.
The conservatives are also facing a difficult situation in Berlin. A ZDF poll puts the CDU at around 20%, behind the Left Party at 22%, potentially affecting the CDU’s position as the leading party in the German capital.
Merz has rejected speculation about an early departure.
“Giving up is not an option for me,” he said following the CDU’s defeat in Saxony-Anhalt.
A change in CDU leadership would not automatically trigger a national election. In the event of a chancellor’s resignation, the Bundestag could elect a new chancellor without a nationwide vote, according to dpa.
