Speaking in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made it clear that business was at the centre of his first visit to Central Asia.
“We have an extraordinary delegation, nearly 300 Americans here with us, and the opportunity to sign deals worth billions of dollars that will enrich countries in the region while also bringing economic benefits to the United States,” Rubio said on October 19.
For Daniel Rosenblum, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Central Asia from 2014 to 2019 before becoming U.S. ambassador to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, the size of the delegation is “unusual.”
“I cannot recall a previous occasion when a Secretary of State’s visit to the region was accompanied by a business mission. We have had many business missions in the past, but I do not remember one being connected to a Secretary of State’s visit in this way. I think it is a good thing and could lead to greater success in securing agreements and new investments,” Rosenblum told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).
However, he warned against expecting an immediate surge in U.S. investment. High-level attention can open doors, he said, but it cannot eliminate the practical obstacles companies face when investing in the region.
“I would emphasise that the realities of investing in Central Asia remain the same, whether or not the Secretary of State is there to make the initial contact,” Rosenblum said.
“Some countries are more welcoming than others. Then there are issues involving distance, logistics, financing and finding a good partner. All of these factors remain the same, whether you have 100, 200 or 20 companies.”
Rubio has said the large business delegation aims to ensure that American companies can compete in markets opening up to U.S. trade.
“This is about making sure we are present in every part of the world that is opening its doors to American business and trade. We need to show up and be there. That is precisely what this is about,” Rubio said in Samarkand, adding that major deals would be announced later.
While Rosenblum welcomed the focus on commercial ties, the former diplomat expressed scepticism about a substantial expansion of American business activity.
“I would be surprised if there were a sudden explosion in which, all of a sudden, ten times as many American companies were doing business as they are today. That strikes me as a real exaggeration,” he said.
What About Human Rights?
The Trump administration’s emphasis on commercial interests represents a departure from the traditional balance of U.S. policy towards Central Asia, Rosenblum said.
Previous administrations combined economic and security cooperation with support for democracy, human rights and market reforms. According to Rosenblum, the current administration has largely removed democracy and human rights from its public agenda.
“Some people say—including some in Central Asia—that this is good for relations. It makes communication easier and allows you to get straight to the point, whether you are discussing business deals or other issues. And I would certainly say that this simplifies relations,” Rosenblum said.
“However, I am not sure whether this closeness—this closeness in our relations with Central Asian countries—can be sustained over the long term without that [human rights] component,” he added.
Power in Central Asia remains concentrated among governing elites and their families, while the transfer of power from one generation to the next is shaping the political future of several countries.
Authoritarian Turkmenistan has already experienced a transfer of power from father to son, while similar succession scenarios have emerged in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Kyrgyzstan, once viewed by Washington as a “democratic exception” in Central Asia, is increasingly restricting political opposition and putting greater pressure on independent media.
Rosenblum said he believed democracy and human rights would eventually return to the forefront of U.S. policy, pointing to legislation, reporting requirements and diplomatic tradition.
“I believe they [human rights] will return because they are enshrined in law, including our requirements for annual human rights reports and the various sanctions associated with them. They are part of the standards we have applied in our relations with the world. They are also part of our tradition. I believe they are part of our DNA. They are part of American DNA,” he said.
Rosenblum rejected the idea that promoting democracy and protecting U.S. commercial interests were mutually exclusive.
“I think it is possible to promote and expand U.S. interests in security, business and economic relations while also speaking about democracy and human rights. It is not a choice between one or the other, nor is it a zero-sum game,” he said.
He added that stronger institutions could also benefit American companies by creating more predictable conditions for investment.
The Limits of U.S. Influence in Central Asia
Rubio said Washington was not asking Central Asian countries to “stop talking to anyone else or stop cooperating with other countries,” acknowledging their deep economic ties with powerful neighbours, particularly China.
Russia has long maintained significant economic, security and energy ties throughout the region. Its war in Ukraine has created new opportunities for Washington, but Rosenblum warned against assuming that the United States could replace Moscow as the dominant external power in Central Asia.
“I think we can play a role, whether in security, the economy or international cooperation. The United States has a great deal to offer. We can therefore be an important player, certainly more important than we are today. In my view, we will never be the main player in Central Asia,” Rosenblum said.
Rather than seeking dominance, Washington should focus on areas where it has advantages and where Central Asian governments want American involvement, he said.
Rosenblum identified advanced technology, artificial intelligence and English-language education as areas in which cooperation with the United States could help the region diversify its partnerships.
He also rejected the idea that China’s growing economic and security presence meant the region had already been lost to Beijing.
“I do not think this is a lost game, if you can even call it a game,” he said.
As Washington uses the C5+1 format—its main diplomatic framework for cooperation with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—to expand its engagement, Central Asian governments are trying to manage an increasingly large number of diplomatic formats involving external powers.
“There are more C5-plus formats than there are months in a year,” Rosenblum said. “So even if you tried to organise one every month, you would not be able to cover them all in a single year.”
Rosenblum, a longtime supporter of regional integration, said he was seeing growing cohesion among the five Central Asian countries themselves.
“I believe the C5 format on its own, without the ‘plus’ or ‘minus’, as I have called it before, is developing, growing and gradually becoming more cohesive,” he said.
